...Don't Believe the Hype. At least, don't always believe it.
Already, my eyes must be deceiving me as two of the game's young-and-promising third basemen are being drafted in the first six rounds of a standard 10-team 5x5 league on both ESPN and Yahoo!. Evan Longoria (one letter away from another over-hyped Longoria in American culture) and Chris Davis (lame name, but I still love this guy) enter 2009 as the darlings of fantasy 3B options for those who just don't have the patience to hear why Adrian Beltre is so underrated or why Mark Reynolds should go at least five rounds earlier. But do we really need to see these guys that high up the proverbial ladder? Let's focus on Evan Longoria and talk about 3Bs and name recognition for a moment.
Did you know that 20 (!) 3B-eligible players hit 20 or more home runs last year?
(A. Rodriguez, D. Wright, R. Braun, M. Cabrera, E. Longoria, A. Beltre, M. Reynolds, G. Atkins, Ar. Ramirez, C. Jones, M. Mora, T. Wigginton, A. Huff, K. Youkilis, J. Cantu, M. DeRosa, C. Blake, K. Kouzmanoff, T. Glaus, E. Encarnacion.)
Of those, 13 hit at least 25 with five breaking the 30-homer plateau (Rodriguez, Wright, Braun, Cabrera, Huff). It's safe to say drafting power at third base is very, very easy. Let's take this a step further.
Evan Longoria hit 67/27/85/7/.272 in 448 at-bats last year. Projecting that over a full 162-game season, Longoria might have cracked 30 with 95-100 RBI. He's currently being drafted in the third round of standard 10-team drafts on ESPN. Now, this is where it gets interesting.
Aramis Ramirez, in a steady statistical decline, hit 27 home runs but walked away with 111 runs batted in -- one of only six third basemen to break 100 in 2008 -- with 97 runs and a .289 average. Among still-eligible third basemen, those numbers are good for fourth and fifth respectively (the latter considering a 500-at-bat minimum). Currently, Aramis Ramirez is being drafted in the fourth or fifth round in standard 10-team 5x5 leagues. Why?
On the other hand, Troy Glaus went 69/27/99/0/.270 in 544 at-bats and looks like draft fodder right now thanks to another injury. By the way, Glaus just decided to shut down all baseball-related activity to let his shoulder catch up on the healing process. So long, April. Hello late May/early June. Good to see you again.
Beyond power numbers, speed and average come into play, just as I hinted above. As far as speed numbers go, only one man cracked 20 this year, and he didn't even get 500 at-bats. Yup, Chone Figgins swiped 34 bags in 2008 in spite of what seemed like 4,267 injuries. The next-best total is Alex Rodriguez's 18. Beyond those two, only three guys (including Braun) cracked double-digit swipes and 12 more finished in the five-to-nine range. Longoria swiped seven bags, which projects to between nine and twelve bags over a full season. According to the 2008 rubric, this would place him fourth or fifth among third basemen.
Side Note: Arizona's Mark Reynolds swiped 11 bags, hit 28 home runs, and scored 87 runs with 97 runs batted in but only hit .239. Now, think back to all the advice the fantasy analysts on the high-profile ESPN, Yahoo!, and CBS have doled out. Remeber when they advised you to draft high-average guys to cancel out the liabilities there in the later rounds of the draft? Meet Mark Reynolds. Excluding his paltry clip, Reynolds was excellent at the hot corner: eighth in runs, sixth in home runs, ninth in runs batted in, and fourth in stolen bases. The reason you draft an Ichiro Suzuki is so you can giggle in rounds 16 to 19 and pick Mark Reynolds, knowing full-well that you've found fantasy gold that late in the draft. Just sayin'.
But I digress. Beyond power and speed, there's the average issue. Considering all the options at third with 400 or more at-bats last season (bear with me here), Longoria's .272 was good for 17th. Yup. It's strange when you stack up all the numbers and compare side-by-side, isn't it? I'm not saying Evan Longoria won't inevitably turn out to be a top-round pick. His upside in a potent and, most importantly, young Tampa Bay lineup leads me to believe he'll be there by 2010 for sure. Also consider that BJ Upton's shoulder gave him fits most of the year, Carl Crawford sat on the DL again, and Carlos Pena saw a significant DL stint. Those three guys fully healthy could certainly put Longoria's numbers over the top before long. Unfortunately, the same can be said about other lineups and their respective talents with their respective upside plays.
All I'm saying is that Evan Longoria's name might be carrying him to a level beyond what his stats are actually worth. Sure some guys can regress, and some guys just don't qualify at third anymore (Cabrera, you super-talented fatty, you). This year, I don't see more than 12 third basemen cracking 20 home runs. But does that further justify Longoria's over-hyped self in the third round, before the likes of Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre? In one-year leagues, absolutely not. And therein lies the dilemma.
It's an epidemic. Fantasy baseball is no longer turning into a once-in-a-while hobby for some. It's becoming a mathematical obsession for many -- something that carries over from one season to the next. As such, when keeper and dynasty leagues come into effect, there are too many who bring the keeper-league mentality into a one-year draft and crash and burn. Join a one-year league with me and draft Matt Wieters ahead of Bengie Molina. I will laugh at you every single time when I draft a Raul Ibanez in the eleventh round instead (that's a whole other rant in and of itself) and wait seven to nine rounds for B-Mo (I just made that name up right now; I've never called him that nor will I ever again).
This new "Major League Investment" mentality brought to the fantasy baseball table isn't a bad thing, necessarily. Hell, I believe fantasy baseball is the future of the sport and a virtual savior (like that pun? I didn't) amid a troubling economy. I don't think I'm alone in this, either:
http://www.ibm.com/podcasts/future/FutureOf_Baseball_transcript.pdf .
In case you don't know why I referenced that article, it's simple. Fantasy baseball is baseball reduced to its most basic, mathematical form. Baseball = data in fantasy, and we are essentially going through a very shallow process of quantifying and qualifying stats that most GMs and ball club staff members use to scout, draft, sign, and acquire/trade players. You don't have to be a math major to figure out 28 is more than 27, but you have to have the necessary research skills to understand why 28 < 27 in some ways -- i.e. why Mark Reynolds is so much less valuable in fantasy than Evan Longoria.
Unfortunately -- and more to the point of this article -- I can't tell you why that is when average is the only issue. In standard 5x5 leagues, I can skip Longoria in the third, draft Matt Holliday, and wait 14 rounds or more for Mark Reynolds. I don't see a problem in that whatsoever. I will always draft the numbers before I draft the name.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
20 Questions with the Sandlot champ
Chris Thompson, AKA the motherfucking peanutbutter king of Chicago, took his team 'Nellie's Holler' all the way last year and won our precious Sandlot. I met up with Chris in a dirty alley behind a dumpster to shoot heroin, and talk fantasy baseball.
1. How long have you been playing fantasy baseball?
I've only been playing for about 5 years. It brought me back to baseball after a long drought caused by the strike in '94. I sold all my cards and moved on. I'm very glad FBB brought me back.
2. Where does winning the Sandlot rank among your personal fantasy glory?
I'd say right behind winning 1st prize in a money league a few years back. This league is definitely more competitive, but it's hard to beat winning 600 bucks from your friends. Especially when it appeases a FBB hating wife by buying dinner & a trip to the movies for the fam.
3. How many leagues did you play in last year, and how many in 2009?
Last year was only 3 leagues. This year I'm back at 3, but I'm willing to join 1 or 2 more. I'd love to play more, but I hate having to root for/against my own players because of what they'll do for/against me in different leagues. That takes the fun out of it for me.
4. You won our league by a pretty wide margin (23 points), do you remember at what point in the year you knew you had it locked up?
I'd say after the Vlad/Burnett for Volquez trade, I thought I was going to lock it down. I didn't consider myself safe until Price came up though because I remember thinking it wasn't even necessary to put him on my roster. I don't think Nuke or Buckner really went for it in the end though. They started looking towards next year.
5. You started this dynasty with the Rays. You got a lot of production from Longoria, Upton, Pena, Crawford, Iwamura, Garza, Percival, and Shields, although Pena and Crawford had somewhat disappointing seasons. How much of your success do you attribute to the Rays doing well, and how much was Chris Thompson GM savvy?
Of course I attribute some of my success to the Rays, but the Rays hitting wasn't very good (pretty much middle of the pack amongst mlb teams last year). Upton, Crawford, and Pena all took steps backwards so Longoria's success was a huge relief. I think the low costs of all of the Rays players had more to do with my success than their play. That allowed me to draft some high risk expensive players that turned out pretty decent such as Glaus as well as trade for high salary players like Abreu, Rivera and Santana, and then pick up a Brian Giles without having to worry about the cost. I took the team I was given and made the best of it so you can say it was a good mix.
6. You had the 14th (out of 16) pick in the franchise draft, were you hoping to get the Rays? Do you remember wanting someone else?
Hell No, I didn't want the Rays at first. I knew their MiLB system was good, but I honestly couldn't tell you how good since before last year I didn't know much of anything about MiLB players. I remember telling someone to draft the Angels if Pervin picked while I wasn't around. Worked out nice though, Pervin's gone and I won.
7. After the draft was done, where did you see Nellie's Holler finishing in the standings in 2008?
I saw my team doing well, but not winning. I knew I'd be top 3 in most pitching categories, but lacking in some of the batting cats. I thought I had enough speed on my team to be top 2 and while HR's, RBI's, and AVG were going to be on the low end, I thought I would be top 6 in runs with a decent OBP. I've won a H2H league before with SB's, Runs, AVG and good pitching, which is against the usual trend, so why not try that different strategy here since that's where my original team strengths were? I felt I took what everyone else seemingly undervalued, and made it my strength. Another example of taking what your team gives you and making the best out of it. I wouldn't have won in the end if I didn't trade for batting though, so it's not like it was an end all strategy.
8. You bucked the overwhelming trend of this league by trading several younger, cheaper players like BJ Upton, Scott Kazmir, Edinson Volquez, Matt Garza, and Adam Jones for more veteran and expensive players like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Derek Jeter, AJ Burnett, and Vlad Guerrero last year. Was this by design to ensure more immediate results, or deals that were just too good to pass up, or both?
Upton for Pujols. Kaz for J. Santana. Volquez for Vlad, Burnett, and Buchholz (who I coveted anyways). These are all trades I didn't feel I could pass on. The Garza/Jones/MiLB pick for Jeter/Bedard was the trade I felt I needed to make for immediate results. Furcal wasn't getting healthy so SS was a big black hole for me. I was trying to make a run at winning, and it was a trade I felt I needed to make to win. Jeter hit .345/.342 in Aug/Sept so it worked out for me. I don't think I "won" that trade, but it certainly did help my team out.
9. Staying with veterans, you got significant contributions from several older players like Bobby Abreu, Troy Glaus, Jason Bartlett, Brian Giles, and the players mentioned in the previous question. Is this a strategy you generally lean towards, or was it just a product of best available with such a deep league?
Best available. Abreu, Giles, and Glaus were products of having a low payroll in a deep league where people weren't willing to spend on the older, more expensive players. Abreu is a rock that can help you build a team with, and I think he's generally undervalued. Bartlett though? Really?
10. What were your expectations for Evan Longoria before last season started?
I tried not to have very high expectations for him. After the year of Gordon/Braun, you just don't know what you're going to get.
11. Were you hoping for more from Rick Ankiel last year? He produced pretty well for the round (7), but after the way he finished '07 were expectations (many experts boldly predicted .300/30/100) too high for him?
I was hoping for power out of him, which is something I sorely needed. I knew his avg/obp was going to be low though. Him & Cust were a virtual wash for me, and I think Cust went right around the same time.
12. Felix Hernandez was your first ever pick in this league, assuming you drafted him to be the anchor of your dynasty, what are your expectations for his career?
I think he'll continue to progress and be a top pitcher for years. You just don't see a groundball inducing pitcher accumulate a lot of strikeouts very often. He's still only 23 and learning a lot. I think the Mariners have not been abusive of him either. Add all this up, and he has a lot of promise.
13. Is it safe to say Pat Neshek in the 5th round in 2008 didn't work out the way you hoped?
Neshek was a bomb. At the time, there was a lot of talk about Nathan getting traded and Neshek taking over if that happened. He had good stats the year before, and I figured at least I was going to get a cheap, top set-up man with a chance to close. I changed my drafting strategy this year partly because of him.
14. How big was drafting Edinson Volquez in the 8th round? He got you 13 wins, 130+ K's and a nice 2.47/1.27 line, then he became Vlad Guerrero, AJ Burnett, and Clay Buchholz at the deadline.
Volquez was amazing. I already thought I had a great pitching staff, and Volquez made it the best in the league along with landing 3 excellent players (2 of which I kept, and the other going in the 1st round this year). I was thinking about him a couple rounds before I took him just salivating over those K/9 he put up in the minors without thinking he would come close to doing what he did. If you can say that one player made a whole team work, it was Volquez for me. Unfortunately, I can't see any of the players I currently have getting me that kind of value.
15. Looking ahead to this year, where does Nellie's Holler finish? Back to back championships?
Ooooh, I hope so. I think I have a solid team, but there's always a lot of ?'s, and I think the teams have gotten tighter. I'd have to say winning in the first year of a league like this is good, but doesn't show greatness. If anything, it's the easiest year to luck out on considering as time goes on, each team's MiLB drafting and ability to consider all the variables will show if the FBB manager really knows how to play in a league like this.
16. Josh's 'Nuke Laloosh Express' was your biggest competition last year, and his team looks very strong again. Is he the team you're most worried about? Do you expect the league to be more competitive this year?
I consider my team top 4 right now. I alread said that the Bones have the best keepers to build around, and I stand by that. Spackler's built quite a team, Nuke's very strong if not stronger than last year, and you never know which team has a different strategy that we just don't see yet. I think it will be more competitive, and it was a lot more competitive than the final standings showed last year. Coming up to the deadline, there were a lot of teams buying/selling to shore up their keepers or place in the standings which really skewed the final score.
17. You have 2 pitchers on your team that were both late picks coming off very disappointing seasons, that could both turn out to be steals. What are you hoping to get from Ian Snell and Rich Hill?
I kind of expect Snell to bounce back to respectability. Hill is a long shot, especially in that division. I really didn't need another SP, but couldn't help take a chance on him. If he turns out, then I have trade bait on my starting staff. I seem to have a lot of those kind of SP's that if you add them together will give well above average production. We'll see if that strategy works out.
18. You have 2 young players on your offense that should see a jump in playing time, what are you hoping to get from Jeff Clement and Carlos Gonzalez?
Pretty sure Gonzalez will go down to AAA to start the season. A natural player like him in Coors though? Should be money down the road. Clement on the other hand, I'm counting on to be more productive. 20 HR's from the C position would be huge in comparison to what I got from that position last year. The man was a monster in the minors, hopefully some of that will translate. Clement is the opposite of Gonzalez though IMO, since his viability at the C position down the road is very slim, and that is what makes him valuable.
19. Assuming both pitchers are still on your team next year, who has the better 2010, Johan Santana or David Price?
Santana. Price needs a 3rd pitch in a bad way. He'll burn his arm up on FB's & sliders and become predictable if he doesn't get a good changeup down.
20. When your Cubs choke this fall, who will be to blame?
Who wins in this trade, Liriano/Nathan for Pierzynski? The GM, you always blame the GM for not making that perfect deal.....or the Goat. Depends if you're sober or not.
One good jab deserves another. Touche my friend, and good luck this year.
1. How long have you been playing fantasy baseball?
I've only been playing for about 5 years. It brought me back to baseball after a long drought caused by the strike in '94. I sold all my cards and moved on. I'm very glad FBB brought me back.
2. Where does winning the Sandlot rank among your personal fantasy glory?
I'd say right behind winning 1st prize in a money league a few years back. This league is definitely more competitive, but it's hard to beat winning 600 bucks from your friends. Especially when it appeases a FBB hating wife by buying dinner & a trip to the movies for the fam.
3. How many leagues did you play in last year, and how many in 2009?
Last year was only 3 leagues. This year I'm back at 3, but I'm willing to join 1 or 2 more. I'd love to play more, but I hate having to root for/against my own players because of what they'll do for/against me in different leagues. That takes the fun out of it for me.
4. You won our league by a pretty wide margin (23 points), do you remember at what point in the year you knew you had it locked up?
I'd say after the Vlad/Burnett for Volquez trade, I thought I was going to lock it down. I didn't consider myself safe until Price came up though because I remember thinking it wasn't even necessary to put him on my roster. I don't think Nuke or Buckner really went for it in the end though. They started looking towards next year.
5. You started this dynasty with the Rays. You got a lot of production from Longoria, Upton, Pena, Crawford, Iwamura, Garza, Percival, and Shields, although Pena and Crawford had somewhat disappointing seasons. How much of your success do you attribute to the Rays doing well, and how much was Chris Thompson GM savvy?
Of course I attribute some of my success to the Rays, but the Rays hitting wasn't very good (pretty much middle of the pack amongst mlb teams last year). Upton, Crawford, and Pena all took steps backwards so Longoria's success was a huge relief. I think the low costs of all of the Rays players had more to do with my success than their play. That allowed me to draft some high risk expensive players that turned out pretty decent such as Glaus as well as trade for high salary players like Abreu, Rivera and Santana, and then pick up a Brian Giles without having to worry about the cost. I took the team I was given and made the best of it so you can say it was a good mix.
6. You had the 14th (out of 16) pick in the franchise draft, were you hoping to get the Rays? Do you remember wanting someone else?
Hell No, I didn't want the Rays at first. I knew their MiLB system was good, but I honestly couldn't tell you how good since before last year I didn't know much of anything about MiLB players. I remember telling someone to draft the Angels if Pervin picked while I wasn't around. Worked out nice though, Pervin's gone and I won.
7. After the draft was done, where did you see Nellie's Holler finishing in the standings in 2008?
I saw my team doing well, but not winning. I knew I'd be top 3 in most pitching categories, but lacking in some of the batting cats. I thought I had enough speed on my team to be top 2 and while HR's, RBI's, and AVG were going to be on the low end, I thought I would be top 6 in runs with a decent OBP. I've won a H2H league before with SB's, Runs, AVG and good pitching, which is against the usual trend, so why not try that different strategy here since that's where my original team strengths were? I felt I took what everyone else seemingly undervalued, and made it my strength. Another example of taking what your team gives you and making the best out of it. I wouldn't have won in the end if I didn't trade for batting though, so it's not like it was an end all strategy.
8. You bucked the overwhelming trend of this league by trading several younger, cheaper players like BJ Upton, Scott Kazmir, Edinson Volquez, Matt Garza, and Adam Jones for more veteran and expensive players like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Derek Jeter, AJ Burnett, and Vlad Guerrero last year. Was this by design to ensure more immediate results, or deals that were just too good to pass up, or both?
Upton for Pujols. Kaz for J. Santana. Volquez for Vlad, Burnett, and Buchholz (who I coveted anyways). These are all trades I didn't feel I could pass on. The Garza/Jones/MiLB pick for Jeter/Bedard was the trade I felt I needed to make for immediate results. Furcal wasn't getting healthy so SS was a big black hole for me. I was trying to make a run at winning, and it was a trade I felt I needed to make to win. Jeter hit .345/.342 in Aug/Sept so it worked out for me. I don't think I "won" that trade, but it certainly did help my team out.
9. Staying with veterans, you got significant contributions from several older players like Bobby Abreu, Troy Glaus, Jason Bartlett, Brian Giles, and the players mentioned in the previous question. Is this a strategy you generally lean towards, or was it just a product of best available with such a deep league?
Best available. Abreu, Giles, and Glaus were products of having a low payroll in a deep league where people weren't willing to spend on the older, more expensive players. Abreu is a rock that can help you build a team with, and I think he's generally undervalued. Bartlett though? Really?
10. What were your expectations for Evan Longoria before last season started?
I tried not to have very high expectations for him. After the year of Gordon/Braun, you just don't know what you're going to get.
11. Were you hoping for more from Rick Ankiel last year? He produced pretty well for the round (7), but after the way he finished '07 were expectations (many experts boldly predicted .300/30/100) too high for him?
I was hoping for power out of him, which is something I sorely needed. I knew his avg/obp was going to be low though. Him & Cust were a virtual wash for me, and I think Cust went right around the same time.
12. Felix Hernandez was your first ever pick in this league, assuming you drafted him to be the anchor of your dynasty, what are your expectations for his career?
I think he'll continue to progress and be a top pitcher for years. You just don't see a groundball inducing pitcher accumulate a lot of strikeouts very often. He's still only 23 and learning a lot. I think the Mariners have not been abusive of him either. Add all this up, and he has a lot of promise.
13. Is it safe to say Pat Neshek in the 5th round in 2008 didn't work out the way you hoped?
Neshek was a bomb. At the time, there was a lot of talk about Nathan getting traded and Neshek taking over if that happened. He had good stats the year before, and I figured at least I was going to get a cheap, top set-up man with a chance to close. I changed my drafting strategy this year partly because of him.
14. How big was drafting Edinson Volquez in the 8th round? He got you 13 wins, 130+ K's and a nice 2.47/1.27 line, then he became Vlad Guerrero, AJ Burnett, and Clay Buchholz at the deadline.
Volquez was amazing. I already thought I had a great pitching staff, and Volquez made it the best in the league along with landing 3 excellent players (2 of which I kept, and the other going in the 1st round this year). I was thinking about him a couple rounds before I took him just salivating over those K/9 he put up in the minors without thinking he would come close to doing what he did. If you can say that one player made a whole team work, it was Volquez for me. Unfortunately, I can't see any of the players I currently have getting me that kind of value.
15. Looking ahead to this year, where does Nellie's Holler finish? Back to back championships?
Ooooh, I hope so. I think I have a solid team, but there's always a lot of ?'s, and I think the teams have gotten tighter. I'd have to say winning in the first year of a league like this is good, but doesn't show greatness. If anything, it's the easiest year to luck out on considering as time goes on, each team's MiLB drafting and ability to consider all the variables will show if the FBB manager really knows how to play in a league like this.
16. Josh's 'Nuke Laloosh Express' was your biggest competition last year, and his team looks very strong again. Is he the team you're most worried about? Do you expect the league to be more competitive this year?
I consider my team top 4 right now. I alread said that the Bones have the best keepers to build around, and I stand by that. Spackler's built quite a team, Nuke's very strong if not stronger than last year, and you never know which team has a different strategy that we just don't see yet. I think it will be more competitive, and it was a lot more competitive than the final standings showed last year. Coming up to the deadline, there were a lot of teams buying/selling to shore up their keepers or place in the standings which really skewed the final score.
17. You have 2 pitchers on your team that were both late picks coming off very disappointing seasons, that could both turn out to be steals. What are you hoping to get from Ian Snell and Rich Hill?
I kind of expect Snell to bounce back to respectability. Hill is a long shot, especially in that division. I really didn't need another SP, but couldn't help take a chance on him. If he turns out, then I have trade bait on my starting staff. I seem to have a lot of those kind of SP's that if you add them together will give well above average production. We'll see if that strategy works out.
18. You have 2 young players on your offense that should see a jump in playing time, what are you hoping to get from Jeff Clement and Carlos Gonzalez?
Pretty sure Gonzalez will go down to AAA to start the season. A natural player like him in Coors though? Should be money down the road. Clement on the other hand, I'm counting on to be more productive. 20 HR's from the C position would be huge in comparison to what I got from that position last year. The man was a monster in the minors, hopefully some of that will translate. Clement is the opposite of Gonzalez though IMO, since his viability at the C position down the road is very slim, and that is what makes him valuable.
19. Assuming both pitchers are still on your team next year, who has the better 2010, Johan Santana or David Price?
Santana. Price needs a 3rd pitch in a bad way. He'll burn his arm up on FB's & sliders and become predictable if he doesn't get a good changeup down.
20. When your Cubs choke this fall, who will be to blame?
Who wins in this trade, Liriano/Nathan for Pierzynski? The GM, you always blame the GM for not making that perfect deal.....or the Goat. Depends if you're sober or not.
One good jab deserves another. Touche my friend, and good luck this year.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Best and Worst picks, rounds 6-10
The opinions expressed here are not the opinions of Sandlot Inc, or any subsidiaries. They are only the opinions of Bobby Ayala.
Round 6
Best
-Sean Gallagher, 6.08, (#88 overall) Austin Pucketteers. Coming off a shaky year last season that got shakier after the trade to Oakland, Gallagher still managed to maintain the same high K rates we saw in the minors. His control problems (5.7BB/9 & 1.1HR/9 w/Oak) should smooth out, he just turned 23, and there’s something about Oakland and pitchers.
(Honorable Mentions: Bengie Molina, 6.16, #96, Keyser Soze. Molina hit .316 w/RISP batting cleanup all year, which led to 95 RBI, leading all catchers. Should bat cleanup again, with the added help of Renteria. Oliver Perez, 6.15, (#95 overall) Bobby Ayala, the last SP left you could pencil in for 8K/9 and 14 wins.)
Worst
-Anibal Sanchez, 6.14, (#94) Carl Spackler. Injuries and control problems have plagued Sanchez since his 2006 no-hitter, a little too risky to warrant his selection before Perez. Spackler’s next pick came 3 rounds later, so this might have been his only chance to take him, but with only 3 other SP on his roster at the time, dependability becomes much more important.
(Honorable Mention: Kendry Morales 6.09 #89 Tijuana Mammas. The Angels are going to give him the first shot at being the everyday 1B, but his skills in Cuba and Salt Lake City still haven’t translated to the Bigs. Could be a huge bust, & Adam LaRoche went 13 picks later.)
Round 7
Best
-Adam LaRoche, 7.06, (#102) House that Buckner Built. If he played for any other team he’d get 100 R and 110 RBI easy. As it is, you have to settle for something more like 75/25/95 along with a respectable .280/.350. And just imagine if he figures out how to hit in April, his career 2nd half numbers are MVP-ish.
(Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell, 7.04, #100, Koufax. If healthy he’s one of the best RBI-men in the whole draft.)
Worst
-Rafael Perez, 7.15, (#111) Buckner. Considering that he was the 2nd zero-chance-to-close guy taken in the draft (Putz,) and 8 RPs with real chances to save were taken in the next 2 rounds, it’s a very confusing pick after Buckner made 3 smart picks earlier in the round, (Crisp, LaRoche, and Galarraga.) Perez also backslid in ERA, H/9, & BB/9, while Jensen Lewis slipped in and may have even taken over the primary set-up role.
(Honorable Mention: Matt Joyce, 7.08, #104, Tijuana Mammas. I’m not a believer he’ll do much to improve his .252/.339/.492 line. Cody Ross 6 rounds later will probably get more fantasy starts.)
Round 8
Best
-Ryan Garko, 8.05, (#117) Bobby Ayala. Call me a homer, but I don't pick guys I don't like, and I’m convinced this is the year he breaks out for 30HR and 110RBI. He’ll put up the same numbers as Giambi, is more likely to be a keeper, and he costs $20 mil less.
(Honorable Mention: Brandon Lyon 8.09 #121 Tijuana Mommas. Great timing, drafted him right after Detroit signed him to probably be their closer. 2nd straight year Lyon was drafted right after signing with a new team.)
Worst
-Dustin McGowan 8.11 (#123) Sleeve of Wizard. Optimistically he’s out til May and will get 25 starts. Pessimistically he’ll be back in June and have a late-August stint on the DL with shoulder soreness, 17 starts, and only a couple of those showing why he was so highly touted last year. SS was a greater need at the time he was drafted, though could end up being a last-resort keeper regardless.
Round 9
Best
-Scott Downs 9.12, #140, Nuke Laloosh; & Ryan Madsen 9.02, #130, Wizard Sleeve, probably the top two sources of Holds (and great ERA & WHIP) after JJ Putz.
(Honorable Mention: Khalil Green 9.16, #144, Nellie’s Holler. The slugging SS seemed to slip through the cracks, especially with the number of teams who still needed a SS when he was taken.)
Worst
-Rajai Davis 9.04, #132, Just the Koufax. Not a bad pick id taken 4 rounds later, Rajai gives you 30-40 SB at the cost of everything else. 400 ABs is a stretch in that crowded OF/DH platoon.
-Blake Dewitt 9.07, #135, Killer B’s. He was a fantasy black hole last year, and his ceiling is probably Omar Vizquel-ish. Would have been better to take a chance on the younger and higher-end Bonifacio or Burriss a few rounds later.
Round 10
Best
-Hideki Matsui 10.14, #158, Rusty Trombones. When drafted, Matsui had the best 2007 of any remaining batter, and 100/25/100 is likely for a healthy 2009.
(Honorable Mention: Tim Redding, 10.13, #157, Just the Koufax. Could be Ted Lilly-light with the Mets.)
Worst-Fernando Rodney 10.03, #147, Triple B’s. He’s declined in each of the last 3 seasons in ERA by about 0.70 each year, from 2.86 to 4.91 last year. In line to get a similar # of hold opportunities as better guys taken 3 or 4 rounds later, Damaso Marte, Octavio Dotel.
Round 6
Best
-Sean Gallagher, 6.08, (#88 overall) Austin Pucketteers. Coming off a shaky year last season that got shakier after the trade to Oakland, Gallagher still managed to maintain the same high K rates we saw in the minors. His control problems (5.7BB/9 & 1.1HR/9 w/Oak) should smooth out, he just turned 23, and there’s something about Oakland and pitchers.
(Honorable Mentions: Bengie Molina, 6.16, #96, Keyser Soze. Molina hit .316 w/RISP batting cleanup all year, which led to 95 RBI, leading all catchers. Should bat cleanup again, with the added help of Renteria. Oliver Perez, 6.15, (#95 overall) Bobby Ayala, the last SP left you could pencil in for 8K/9 and 14 wins.)
Worst
-Anibal Sanchez, 6.14, (#94) Carl Spackler. Injuries and control problems have plagued Sanchez since his 2006 no-hitter, a little too risky to warrant his selection before Perez. Spackler’s next pick came 3 rounds later, so this might have been his only chance to take him, but with only 3 other SP on his roster at the time, dependability becomes much more important.
(Honorable Mention: Kendry Morales 6.09 #89 Tijuana Mammas. The Angels are going to give him the first shot at being the everyday 1B, but his skills in Cuba and Salt Lake City still haven’t translated to the Bigs. Could be a huge bust, & Adam LaRoche went 13 picks later.)
Round 7
Best
-Adam LaRoche, 7.06, (#102) House that Buckner Built. If he played for any other team he’d get 100 R and 110 RBI easy. As it is, you have to settle for something more like 75/25/95 along with a respectable .280/.350. And just imagine if he figures out how to hit in April, his career 2nd half numbers are MVP-ish.
(Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell, 7.04, #100, Koufax. If healthy he’s one of the best RBI-men in the whole draft.)
Worst
-Rafael Perez, 7.15, (#111) Buckner. Considering that he was the 2nd zero-chance-to-close guy taken in the draft (Putz,) and 8 RPs with real chances to save were taken in the next 2 rounds, it’s a very confusing pick after Buckner made 3 smart picks earlier in the round, (Crisp, LaRoche, and Galarraga.) Perez also backslid in ERA, H/9, & BB/9, while Jensen Lewis slipped in and may have even taken over the primary set-up role.
(Honorable Mention: Matt Joyce, 7.08, #104, Tijuana Mammas. I’m not a believer he’ll do much to improve his .252/.339/.492 line. Cody Ross 6 rounds later will probably get more fantasy starts.)
Round 8
Best
-Ryan Garko, 8.05, (#117) Bobby Ayala. Call me a homer, but I don't pick guys I don't like, and I’m convinced this is the year he breaks out for 30HR and 110RBI. He’ll put up the same numbers as Giambi, is more likely to be a keeper, and he costs $20 mil less.
(Honorable Mention: Brandon Lyon 8.09 #121 Tijuana Mommas. Great timing, drafted him right after Detroit signed him to probably be their closer. 2nd straight year Lyon was drafted right after signing with a new team.)
Worst
-Dustin McGowan 8.11 (#123) Sleeve of Wizard. Optimistically he’s out til May and will get 25 starts. Pessimistically he’ll be back in June and have a late-August stint on the DL with shoulder soreness, 17 starts, and only a couple of those showing why he was so highly touted last year. SS was a greater need at the time he was drafted, though could end up being a last-resort keeper regardless.
Round 9
Best
-Scott Downs 9.12, #140, Nuke Laloosh; & Ryan Madsen 9.02, #130, Wizard Sleeve, probably the top two sources of Holds (and great ERA & WHIP) after JJ Putz.
(Honorable Mention: Khalil Green 9.16, #144, Nellie’s Holler. The slugging SS seemed to slip through the cracks, especially with the number of teams who still needed a SS when he was taken.)
Worst
-Rajai Davis 9.04, #132, Just the Koufax. Not a bad pick id taken 4 rounds later, Rajai gives you 30-40 SB at the cost of everything else. 400 ABs is a stretch in that crowded OF/DH platoon.
-Blake Dewitt 9.07, #135, Killer B’s. He was a fantasy black hole last year, and his ceiling is probably Omar Vizquel-ish. Would have been better to take a chance on the younger and higher-end Bonifacio or Burriss a few rounds later.
Round 10
Best
-Hideki Matsui 10.14, #158, Rusty Trombones. When drafted, Matsui had the best 2007 of any remaining batter, and 100/25/100 is likely for a healthy 2009.
(Honorable Mention: Tim Redding, 10.13, #157, Just the Koufax. Could be Ted Lilly-light with the Mets.)
Worst-Fernando Rodney 10.03, #147, Triple B’s. He’s declined in each of the last 3 seasons in ERA by about 0.70 each year, from 2.86 to 4.91 last year. In line to get a similar # of hold opportunities as better guys taken 3 or 4 rounds later, Damaso Marte, Octavio Dotel.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Best and Worst picks, rounds 1-5
As a number cruncher and amateur day-trader in stocks (with limited gains and few losses,) I appreciate value analysis. With this in mind I’m breaking down the standout picks, for better or worse, in each round.
Fellow Sandlotters, please don’t take this personally, criticism of a pick is not an attack on your character, just my opinion and therefore very fallible. Please feel free to debate my observations…
Round 1
Best
-Max Scherzer 1.02 (#2 overall) Bobby Ayala. More than any other player in the draft, Scherzer should’ve been kept (Koufax kept 3 RP instead, Soria, Wood, and Marmol.) He could be the next Lincecum, K/9 somewhere around 10, low 3’s ERA, and with an increase to 12 keepers next year the potential value is off the scale.
(Honorable Mention: Ryan Theriot 1.12, #12, Bobby Ayala. See the previous post “Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala.”)
Worst
-Jeff Francoeur 1.08 (#8 overall) Tijuana Mammas. Was the 3rd OF taken in the draft, despite coming off an Andruw Jones-type season of career lows in R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, & OBP. Wait, that’s every fantasy stat in our league. (My bad, his OBP was 0.01 lower in 2006.) He had fewer HR (11) in 599 AB than he did in 2005 (14) when he only had 257 AB. At least his K rate improved to a balmy 1/5.396 AB.
(Honorable Mention: Mariano Rivera 1.06, #6, Sleeve of Wizard. $15 mil for a 39-yr-old closer.)
Round 2
Best
-No stand out picks this round, 4 closers taken out of necessity, solid veterans like Dye, Burrell and Lilly, but some young guys like Denard Span and John Maine might pay off huge.
Worst
-Todd Wellemeyer 2.16 (#32 overall) Keyser Soze. A 30-yr-old journeyman who put together a decent year in his first full season as a starter, he looks more like a product of LaRussa/Duncan magic than a legitimate ace-in-the-making. In 2008 he averaged under 6IP per outing with unimpressive K/9 and K/BB ratios, and declined in the 2nd half. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jesse Litsch, Chris Volstad, and Jonathan Sanchez were the next 4 SP taken, all of whom are younger, have more upside, and arguably looked better last year than Wellemeyer ever has.
Round 3
Best
-Mark DeRosa, 3.13 (#45 overall) Carl Spackler. The last 2B in his tier, the last 2B you could probably lock in at 100 R, 20HR, and 90 RBI, oh and he qualifies at 3B and OF too. Should see an increase in AB (505 last year,) could bat 2nd behind Sizemore in front of VMart and Pronk. Immediately after Spackler took him, half the league let him know DeRosa was next on their queue.
(Honorable Mention: The aforementioned 4 SP, Jimenez, Litsch, Volstad, Sanchez, the class of young SP still available in the draft.)
Worst
-Dallas McPherson, 3.09 (#41) Austin Pucketteers. Yeah, I know the guy hit 1000 HR in AAA last year, but his career #s against big-league pitching show him to be a .250 hitter who never walks and Ks once every 3 AB. He’ll also be competing with Wes Helms for playing time, and possibly Jorge Cantu if Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison immerge this year. McPherson gets my vote for the Most-Likely-to-be-Traded-for-Random-Average-Relief-Pitcher Award.
(Honorable Mentions: Carlos Gonzalez, 3.16 (#48) Nellie’s Holler, who could’ve gone 4 rounds later, and Ian Stewart, 3.15 (#47) Rusty Trombones, who I’m guessing was drafted to fill a MI role. Let’s hope he actually does get that starting 2B job over Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes so he can pick up 2B eligibility as quickly as possible, especially after what Rusty traded for him.)
Round 4
Best
- In the 4th round, Nuke Laloosh added Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard, Jason Bartlett, Jack Cust, and Johnny Damon, 2 power guys, a speed guy, a SP primed for a top-tier comeback he later traded for CC Sabathia, and Damon, 4.14 (#62,) the last legitimate 6-tool OF left. Damon became the 23rd player on Nuke’s roster with a salary over $10 mil. Stop trading him cash, people.
Worst
-Adam Lind, 4.06, (#54) Lunatic Fringe. Sorry Commish, and sorry Keyser, who had him all last year and went on record that he wanted to keep him (and almost did over Ian Kinsler.) Lind is a mediocre 4th OF (Wells, Rios, and Snider will get the bulk of the AB,) who has proven he can hit for AVG in the minors, and that’s about it. 77 HR & 10 SB in 2257 career professional AB is not exactly going to hurt your team, but for a 4th round pick it’s not helping much either.
(Honorable Mentions: Placido Polanco and Mike Fontenot, two 2B taken way too early.)
Round 5
Best
-Jim Thome, 5.10 (#74) Keyser Soze. Sure he’ll turn 39 this season, but he’s hit at least 30 HR & 85 RBI in 11 of the last 12 seasons, and he was the best power option left. He’s probably got one more season left of that kind of production, and guys like him can make the difference between 1st and 2nd.
(Honorable Mention: Joey Devine, 5.07, #71, Killer B’s. If he gets all the save opportunities, and that’s a big if with Ziegler, Casilla, and Springer there, he could be one of the best closers in the game.)
Worst
-Hank Blalock, 5.14 (#78) Triple B’s. A career of underachieving and injuries; the Rangers begging gold-glove SS Michael Young to take over at 3B in a crowded infield; no apparent suitors asking about him; all this shapes up to be a season of uncertainty for an inconsistent slugger taken 2 rounds before Mike Lowell and Casey Blake.
(Honorable Mentions: JJ Putz, 5.13, #77, Carl Spackler, taken 34 spots before the next set-up guy. He’s good, but how about Ziegler or Balfour going in round 8? John Smoltz, 5.16, #80, Nellie’s Holler, because he’ll be out until July and maybe not 100% until August. Justin Duchsherer 2 picks later looks a lot better.)
As a number cruncher and amateur day-trader in stocks (with limited gains and few losses,) I appreciate value analysis. With this in mind I’m breaking down the standout picks, for better or worse, in each round.
Fellow Sandlotters, please don’t take this personally, criticism of a pick is not an attack on your character, just my opinion and therefore very fallible. Please feel free to debate my observations…
Round 1
Best
-Max Scherzer 1.02 (#2 overall) Bobby Ayala. More than any other player in the draft, Scherzer should’ve been kept (Koufax kept 3 RP instead, Soria, Wood, and Marmol.) He could be the next Lincecum, K/9 somewhere around 10, low 3’s ERA, and with an increase to 12 keepers next year the potential value is off the scale.
(Honorable Mention: Ryan Theriot 1.12, #12, Bobby Ayala. See the previous post “Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala.”)
Worst
-Jeff Francoeur 1.08 (#8 overall) Tijuana Mammas. Was the 3rd OF taken in the draft, despite coming off an Andruw Jones-type season of career lows in R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, & OBP. Wait, that’s every fantasy stat in our league. (My bad, his OBP was 0.01 lower in 2006.) He had fewer HR (11) in 599 AB than he did in 2005 (14) when he only had 257 AB. At least his K rate improved to a balmy 1/5.396 AB.
(Honorable Mention: Mariano Rivera 1.06, #6, Sleeve of Wizard. $15 mil for a 39-yr-old closer.)
Round 2
Best
-No stand out picks this round, 4 closers taken out of necessity, solid veterans like Dye, Burrell and Lilly, but some young guys like Denard Span and John Maine might pay off huge.
Worst
-Todd Wellemeyer 2.16 (#32 overall) Keyser Soze. A 30-yr-old journeyman who put together a decent year in his first full season as a starter, he looks more like a product of LaRussa/Duncan magic than a legitimate ace-in-the-making. In 2008 he averaged under 6IP per outing with unimpressive K/9 and K/BB ratios, and declined in the 2nd half. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jesse Litsch, Chris Volstad, and Jonathan Sanchez were the next 4 SP taken, all of whom are younger, have more upside, and arguably looked better last year than Wellemeyer ever has.
Round 3
Best
-Mark DeRosa, 3.13 (#45 overall) Carl Spackler. The last 2B in his tier, the last 2B you could probably lock in at 100 R, 20HR, and 90 RBI, oh and he qualifies at 3B and OF too. Should see an increase in AB (505 last year,) could bat 2nd behind Sizemore in front of VMart and Pronk. Immediately after Spackler took him, half the league let him know DeRosa was next on their queue.
(Honorable Mention: The aforementioned 4 SP, Jimenez, Litsch, Volstad, Sanchez, the class of young SP still available in the draft.)
Worst
-Dallas McPherson, 3.09 (#41) Austin Pucketteers. Yeah, I know the guy hit 1000 HR in AAA last year, but his career #s against big-league pitching show him to be a .250 hitter who never walks and Ks once every 3 AB. He’ll also be competing with Wes Helms for playing time, and possibly Jorge Cantu if Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison immerge this year. McPherson gets my vote for the Most-Likely-to-be-Traded-for-Random-Average-Relief-Pitcher Award.
(Honorable Mentions: Carlos Gonzalez, 3.16 (#48) Nellie’s Holler, who could’ve gone 4 rounds later, and Ian Stewart, 3.15 (#47) Rusty Trombones, who I’m guessing was drafted to fill a MI role. Let’s hope he actually does get that starting 2B job over Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes so he can pick up 2B eligibility as quickly as possible, especially after what Rusty traded for him.)
Round 4
Best
- In the 4th round, Nuke Laloosh added Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard, Jason Bartlett, Jack Cust, and Johnny Damon, 2 power guys, a speed guy, a SP primed for a top-tier comeback he later traded for CC Sabathia, and Damon, 4.14 (#62,) the last legitimate 6-tool OF left. Damon became the 23rd player on Nuke’s roster with a salary over $10 mil. Stop trading him cash, people.
Worst
-Adam Lind, 4.06, (#54) Lunatic Fringe. Sorry Commish, and sorry Keyser, who had him all last year and went on record that he wanted to keep him (and almost did over Ian Kinsler.) Lind is a mediocre 4th OF (Wells, Rios, and Snider will get the bulk of the AB,) who has proven he can hit for AVG in the minors, and that’s about it. 77 HR & 10 SB in 2257 career professional AB is not exactly going to hurt your team, but for a 4th round pick it’s not helping much either.
(Honorable Mentions: Placido Polanco and Mike Fontenot, two 2B taken way too early.)
Round 5
Best
-Jim Thome, 5.10 (#74) Keyser Soze. Sure he’ll turn 39 this season, but he’s hit at least 30 HR & 85 RBI in 11 of the last 12 seasons, and he was the best power option left. He’s probably got one more season left of that kind of production, and guys like him can make the difference between 1st and 2nd.
(Honorable Mention: Joey Devine, 5.07, #71, Killer B’s. If he gets all the save opportunities, and that’s a big if with Ziegler, Casilla, and Springer there, he could be one of the best closers in the game.)
Worst
-Hank Blalock, 5.14 (#78) Triple B’s. A career of underachieving and injuries; the Rangers begging gold-glove SS Michael Young to take over at 3B in a crowded infield; no apparent suitors asking about him; all this shapes up to be a season of uncertainty for an inconsistent slugger taken 2 rounds before Mike Lowell and Casey Blake.
(Honorable Mentions: JJ Putz, 5.13, #77, Carl Spackler, taken 34 spots before the next set-up guy. He’s good, but how about Ziegler or Balfour going in round 8? John Smoltz, 5.16, #80, Nellie’s Holler, because he’ll be out until July and maybe not 100% until August. Justin Duchsherer 2 picks later looks a lot better.)
Mildly interesting draft statistics (through 12 rounds)
From the rosters at the end of last season:
Who had the best set of players that weren't kept?
-Just the Koufax has had all but 2 of his players drafted, only Miguel Montero and Brett Gardner are left.
-Lunatic Fringe has 4 remaining undrafted players, Triple B's has 5. Talk about depth!
Who had the worst set of players that weren't kept?
-Baseball Junkies unfortunately inherited the worst team in the league, formally Pervin the Dish, who still has 15 unkept players undrafted. That means only 5 former Pervies were drafted thusfar.
-Other notables: Sleeve of Wizard (formally Denver Nuggets) has 14, Killer B's & Austin Pucketteers (formally Chicago Serbs) have 13, and Bobby Ayala has 12 (7 are SP.)
The most abundant position left of unkept players is RP, with 45. There are 29 SP left, and 25 OF.
There are 19 remaining unkept players that qualify at MI, and only 15 at CI.
There are 13 remaining unkept C
The highest draft pick from 2008 that wasn't kept? JJ Putz was taken #8 overall by Triple B's in 2008. Erik Bedard went #10 to Nuke Laloosh, and Aaron Harang went #14 to Serbs.
The best draft value of 2008? Ryan Doumit was the latest player drafted that ended up being kept, at 19.12 (#300 overall) by Rusty Trombones. Unfortunately he dropped Doumit before the season began and Bobby Ayala picked him up. Justin Duchsherer at 20.08 (#312 overall) by Denver Nuggets was arguably a better value. One could also make the case for Gavin Floyd at 17.15 (#271) by Buckner.
Free agent pick-ups that ended up being kept:
Ryan Doumit, March 08, Bobby Ayala
Ryan Dempster, March, Pervin
Ricky Nolasco, April, Buckner
Who had the best set of players that weren't kept?
-Just the Koufax has had all but 2 of his players drafted, only Miguel Montero and Brett Gardner are left.
-Lunatic Fringe has 4 remaining undrafted players, Triple B's has 5. Talk about depth!
Who had the worst set of players that weren't kept?
-Baseball Junkies unfortunately inherited the worst team in the league, formally Pervin the Dish, who still has 15 unkept players undrafted. That means only 5 former Pervies were drafted thusfar.
-Other notables: Sleeve of Wizard (formally Denver Nuggets) has 14, Killer B's & Austin Pucketteers (formally Chicago Serbs) have 13, and Bobby Ayala has 12 (7 are SP.)
The most abundant position left of unkept players is RP, with 45. There are 29 SP left, and 25 OF.
There are 19 remaining unkept players that qualify at MI, and only 15 at CI.
There are 13 remaining unkept C
The highest draft pick from 2008 that wasn't kept? JJ Putz was taken #8 overall by Triple B's in 2008. Erik Bedard went #10 to Nuke Laloosh, and Aaron Harang went #14 to Serbs.
The best draft value of 2008? Ryan Doumit was the latest player drafted that ended up being kept, at 19.12 (#300 overall) by Rusty Trombones. Unfortunately he dropped Doumit before the season began and Bobby Ayala picked him up. Justin Duchsherer at 20.08 (#312 overall) by Denver Nuggets was arguably a better value. One could also make the case for Gavin Floyd at 17.15 (#271) by Buckner.
Free agent pick-ups that ended up being kept:
Ryan Doumit, March 08, Bobby Ayala
Ryan Dempster, March, Pervin
Ricky Nolasco, April, Buckner
Monday, January 26, 2009
2008 Sandlot Winter Meetings
As promised, here is a brief rundown of the 2008 Winter Meetings and all league decisions and changes involved therein:
Agenda #1: MLB & MiLB Keepers
The number of MLB keepers allotted to each team will increase to 12 after the 2009 season (previous total was 10). The number of MiLB keepers allotted to each team will stay the same (eight).
Agenda #2: MiLB Draft; MiLB Eligibility Standards
The 2009 MiLB Draft will not be extended or increased (five rounds).
Any MiLB player not eligible for the previously held MiLB draft -- i.e. any player not signed by a professional team with no recorded stats prior to mid-season -- is ineligible for free-agent selection and/or keeper selection. Instead, the aforementioned player(s) will be held over until the next season's MiLB Draft.
Agenda #3: 2009 Salary Figures & Adjustments
The 2009 salary cap allotted to each owner will increase to $125MM (previous total was $110MM). The 2009 minimum player salary will increase to $390k (previous figure was $300k).
And again, The Sandlot League will continue to utilize Cot's Baseball Contracts for all salary figures via http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com.
Agenda #4: Draft-Pick Trading & 2010 Draft Order
Owners are limited to in-season trades involving draft picks for the following season (e.g., owners can trade or acquire picks for the 2010 draft during the 2009 season). No owner shall engage in trades involving draft picks two or more years into the future.
The 2010 Draft Order will reflect the inverse of the final 2009 League Standings.
(The previous order reflected an inverse among the top eight teams and a randomly selected order among the bottom eight -- a measure taken to prevent tanking).
Agenda #1: MLB & MiLB Keepers
The number of MLB keepers allotted to each team will increase to 12 after the 2009 season (previous total was 10). The number of MiLB keepers allotted to each team will stay the same (eight).
Agenda #2: MiLB Draft; MiLB Eligibility Standards
The 2009 MiLB Draft will not be extended or increased (five rounds).
Any MiLB player not eligible for the previously held MiLB draft -- i.e. any player not signed by a professional team with no recorded stats prior to mid-season -- is ineligible for free-agent selection and/or keeper selection. Instead, the aforementioned player(s) will be held over until the next season's MiLB Draft.
Agenda #3: 2009 Salary Figures & Adjustments
The 2009 salary cap allotted to each owner will increase to $125MM (previous total was $110MM). The 2009 minimum player salary will increase to $390k (previous figure was $300k).
And again, The Sandlot League will continue to utilize Cot's Baseball Contracts for all salary figures via http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com.
Agenda #4: Draft-Pick Trading & 2010 Draft Order
Owners are limited to in-season trades involving draft picks for the following season (e.g., owners can trade or acquire picks for the 2010 draft during the 2009 season). No owner shall engage in trades involving draft picks two or more years into the future.
The 2010 Draft Order will reflect the inverse of the final 2009 League Standings.
(The previous order reflected an inverse among the top eight teams and a randomly selected order among the bottom eight -- a measure taken to prevent tanking).
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala
Many of the Sandlot Blog faithful will have familiarized themselves with the ins and outs of The Sandlot's league settings, but just to be safe, let me give a brief overview: 16 teams; 10 MLB keepers; eight MiLB keepers per team -- at least for the time being. Those numbers might change in our annual Sandlot Winter Meetings. (EDIT: Complete Winter Meetings slate will appear in Monday post.)
Presumably, at least on the big-league level, this implies 90 to 95% of the top-160 projected draftees will already be unavailable. As such, the first round of the ongoing 2009 draft would likely resemble a 17th-round crop in a typical 10-team ESPN or Yahoo! league. This sometimes isn't the case in Sandlot as salary figures, age, career years and upside all factor into keeper selections.
The following selections were made in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft:
1. Keyser Soze's Major League Minions -- JJ Hardy, SS Brewers, $2.65 MM
2. Bobby Ayala -- Max Scherzer, SP Diamondbacks, $1.075 MM
3. Rusty Trombones -- Johnny Cueto, SP Reds, $390k
4. Just the Koufax, Ma'am -- Jorge Cantu, 3B Marlins, $500k
5. The Baseball Junkies -- Andre Ethier, OF Dodgers, $424.5k
6. Sleeve of Wizard -- Mariano Rivera, RP Yankees, $15 MM
7. Killer B's -- Bobby Abreu, OF Free Agent, $16 MM
8. Tijuana Mamas -- Jeff Francoeur, OF Braves, $460k
9. Austin Puckettiers -- Raul Ibanez, OF Phillies, $5.5 MM
10. The Jimi Hendry Experience -- Milton Bradley, OF Cubs, $5 MM
11. Lunatic Fringe -- A.J. Burnett, SP Yankees, $12 MM
12. Bobby Ayala -- Ryan Theriot, SS Cubs, $428k
13. Bobby Ayala -- Brian Fuentes, RP Angels, $5.05 MM
14. Blue Balls Busters -- Jhonny Peralta, SS/[3B] Indians, $2.25 MM
15. Nuke LaLoosh Express -- Javier Vazquez, SP Braves, $11.5 MM
16. Nellie's Holler -- Matt Capps, RP Pirates, $500k
Right away, some might find aberrations in the aforementioned assumption of 16.x value found in the first round of this draft -- most noticeably, Rivera, Abreu, Ibanez, Bradley, Burnett, Theriot, and Vazquez all went in this round along with a few mid-tier closer options like Fuentes and Capps.
These selections immediately indicate two significant factors in this league: age and salary. As a former Vazquez owner myself, acquiring him and the dreadful shell of a 3B once known as Chone Figgins in exchange for a future pick, Chipper Jones (let the berating begin), and Brad Penny, I did not feel the hefty ERA and WHIP rates Vazquez brought to the table were justified by his K/9 rate and W-L record. As such, his $11.5 MM salary didn't seem to fit in spite of an intriguing move to Atlanta for 2009 and beyond. But I digress.
Another interesting factor in this first round is seeing Bobby Ayala with three picks while other owners -- Carl Spackler and The House That Buckner Built -- made no selections. Ah, the bittersweet smell of draft-pick trades. Let's dig deeper into this situation and find out if it was really worth the trouble of acquiring two additional first-round picks.
Let me preface the rest of this article with the following statement: I do not mind trades involving draft picks, though I am generally against them for the sake of a few nerdy acronyms: ADP (average draft position), PRK (position ranking), BAO (best available option), and VORP (value over replacement player). Let me also preface the following brief analysis by saying that I am not picking on Bobby Ayala. He's merely an example for the sake of flushing out my point.
On July 25, 2008, Bobby and Buckner completed this trade (don't ask me why):
Bobby Ayala sends: $10 MM (salary coverage), Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, C.J. Wilson, J.C. Romero, Scott Linebrink, and his 16th- and 18th-round draft picks, which we have yet to see.
Buckner sends: his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick and his 1st- and 6th-round MLB picks, which became Theriot and presumed Rockies closer Huston Street -- totaling $3.728 MM out of the allotted $125 MM this season.
Back on February 23, 2008, Bobby and Carl Spackler completed this trade:
Bobby Ayala sends his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick (#31 overall).
Carl Spackler sends his 1st-round MLB draft pick, which became Fuentes ($5.05 MM).
Essentially, as Bobby Ayala had previously admitted he was building for the future from the start of '08, he basically traded his 16th- and 18th-round MLB and 2nd-round MiLB draft picks for the opportunity to draft Theriot, Fuentes, and Street respectively ($8.778 MM in combined salary figures). Sure, Bobby finished in 10th place in 2008 while Spackler and Buckner finished 4th and 5th; but his build-for-2009 strategy has already paid off. Why?
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim introduced a whopping 87 save opportunities to its bullpen last season. Francisco Rodriguez managed to break the MLB record and convert 62 of 69 save opportunities. Scot Shields converted four of nine (hey, somebody had to give that guy a break). Colorado's Rockies yielded 59 opportunities while only managing to convert 36 as a team (Fuentes: 30/34). This can only mean one thing: Fuentes, coming off of a hot second-half 2008 performance, looks to be a solid replacement to K-Rod in Los Angeles. A low-3 ERA with 40+ save conversions seems very likely. Huston Street, on the other hand, moves to a shaky Colorado pitching staff and now must battle with determined RP Manny Corpas to reclaim his place as closer. Street's the wild card in this trio.
Ryan Theriot is easily the strongest selection of the three. Among his fellow shortstops with more than 100 AB in 2008 -- lenient, I know -- Theriot finished 9th in AB (580) and R (85); 8th in H (178); T-5 in 3B (4); 13th in TB (208); 2nd in BB (73); 5th in SB (22); 4th in OBP (.387); and 4th in AVG (.307). Theriot cemented himself as a top-10 shortstop option and, arguably, a top-5 option in The Sandlot given his contract and MLB experience -- 2008 was only his second full season with the Cubs.
I understand that's a whole lot of stats thrown together all at once. Let's look at it another way. Here's a list of shortstops kept by Sandlot owners prior to the 2009 MLB Draft: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Orlando Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Michael Young (now a 3B), Alexei Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, and prospects Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.
With this list of keeper-tagged shortstops, Ryan Theriot arguably becomes the BAO at shortstop in spite of the presence of oft-injured Rafael Furcal and aging Miguel Tejada in the 2009 MLB Draft. Committing $428k to a top-10 shortstop in his late-20s stands out like no other pick in the first round. Bobby Ayala, for my money (and not much of his own), not only made the best 1st-round pick of any team in the league but also made his previous 2008 transactions pay off in serious dividends.
Understand that this scenario is not the norm when dealing draft picks. Transactions involving draft picks are generally a toss-up and can go in either direction for anyone. Many factors can change one's fortune -- including keeper retention as we just saw in this example -- and work either for or against him.
Caveat emptor when dealing current or future draft picks; or, perhaps, caveat Bobby Ayala. You may get smoked just as Carl Spackler and Buckner did in this one.
Presumably, at least on the big-league level, this implies 90 to 95% of the top-160 projected draftees will already be unavailable. As such, the first round of the ongoing 2009 draft would likely resemble a 17th-round crop in a typical 10-team ESPN or Yahoo! league. This sometimes isn't the case in Sandlot as salary figures, age, career years and upside all factor into keeper selections.
The following selections were made in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft:
1. Keyser Soze's Major League Minions -- JJ Hardy, SS Brewers, $2.65 MM
2. Bobby Ayala -- Max Scherzer, SP Diamondbacks, $1.075 MM
3. Rusty Trombones -- Johnny Cueto, SP Reds, $390k
4. Just the Koufax, Ma'am -- Jorge Cantu, 3B Marlins, $500k
5. The Baseball Junkies -- Andre Ethier, OF Dodgers, $424.5k
6. Sleeve of Wizard -- Mariano Rivera, RP Yankees, $15 MM
7. Killer B's -- Bobby Abreu, OF Free Agent, $16 MM
8. Tijuana Mamas -- Jeff Francoeur, OF Braves, $460k
9. Austin Puckettiers -- Raul Ibanez, OF Phillies, $5.5 MM
10. The Jimi Hendry Experience -- Milton Bradley, OF Cubs, $5 MM
11. Lunatic Fringe -- A.J. Burnett, SP Yankees, $12 MM
12. Bobby Ayala -- Ryan Theriot, SS Cubs, $428k
13. Bobby Ayala -- Brian Fuentes, RP Angels, $5.05 MM
14. Blue Balls Busters -- Jhonny Peralta, SS/[3B] Indians, $2.25 MM
15. Nuke LaLoosh Express -- Javier Vazquez, SP Braves, $11.5 MM
16. Nellie's Holler -- Matt Capps, RP Pirates, $500k
Right away, some might find aberrations in the aforementioned assumption of 16.x value found in the first round of this draft -- most noticeably, Rivera, Abreu, Ibanez, Bradley, Burnett, Theriot, and Vazquez all went in this round along with a few mid-tier closer options like Fuentes and Capps.
These selections immediately indicate two significant factors in this league: age and salary. As a former Vazquez owner myself, acquiring him and the dreadful shell of a 3B once known as Chone Figgins in exchange for a future pick, Chipper Jones (let the berating begin), and Brad Penny, I did not feel the hefty ERA and WHIP rates Vazquez brought to the table were justified by his K/9 rate and W-L record. As such, his $11.5 MM salary didn't seem to fit in spite of an intriguing move to Atlanta for 2009 and beyond. But I digress.
Another interesting factor in this first round is seeing Bobby Ayala with three picks while other owners -- Carl Spackler and The House That Buckner Built -- made no selections. Ah, the bittersweet smell of draft-pick trades. Let's dig deeper into this situation and find out if it was really worth the trouble of acquiring two additional first-round picks.
Let me preface the rest of this article with the following statement: I do not mind trades involving draft picks, though I am generally against them for the sake of a few nerdy acronyms: ADP (average draft position), PRK (position ranking), BAO (best available option), and VORP (value over replacement player). Let me also preface the following brief analysis by saying that I am not picking on Bobby Ayala. He's merely an example for the sake of flushing out my point.
On July 25, 2008, Bobby and Buckner completed this trade (don't ask me why):
Bobby Ayala sends: $10 MM (salary coverage), Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, C.J. Wilson, J.C. Romero, Scott Linebrink, and his 16th- and 18th-round draft picks, which we have yet to see.
Buckner sends: his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick and his 1st- and 6th-round MLB picks, which became Theriot and presumed Rockies closer Huston Street -- totaling $3.728 MM out of the allotted $125 MM this season.
Back on February 23, 2008, Bobby and Carl Spackler completed this trade:
Bobby Ayala sends his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick (#31 overall).
Carl Spackler sends his 1st-round MLB draft pick, which became Fuentes ($5.05 MM).
Essentially, as Bobby Ayala had previously admitted he was building for the future from the start of '08, he basically traded his 16th- and 18th-round MLB and 2nd-round MiLB draft picks for the opportunity to draft Theriot, Fuentes, and Street respectively ($8.778 MM in combined salary figures). Sure, Bobby finished in 10th place in 2008 while Spackler and Buckner finished 4th and 5th; but his build-for-2009 strategy has already paid off. Why?
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim introduced a whopping 87 save opportunities to its bullpen last season. Francisco Rodriguez managed to break the MLB record and convert 62 of 69 save opportunities. Scot Shields converted four of nine (hey, somebody had to give that guy a break). Colorado's Rockies yielded 59 opportunities while only managing to convert 36 as a team (Fuentes: 30/34). This can only mean one thing: Fuentes, coming off of a hot second-half 2008 performance, looks to be a solid replacement to K-Rod in Los Angeles. A low-3 ERA with 40+ save conversions seems very likely. Huston Street, on the other hand, moves to a shaky Colorado pitching staff and now must battle with determined RP Manny Corpas to reclaim his place as closer. Street's the wild card in this trio.
Ryan Theriot is easily the strongest selection of the three. Among his fellow shortstops with more than 100 AB in 2008 -- lenient, I know -- Theriot finished 9th in AB (580) and R (85); 8th in H (178); T-5 in 3B (4); 13th in TB (208); 2nd in BB (73); 5th in SB (22); 4th in OBP (.387); and 4th in AVG (.307). Theriot cemented himself as a top-10 shortstop option and, arguably, a top-5 option in The Sandlot given his contract and MLB experience -- 2008 was only his second full season with the Cubs.
I understand that's a whole lot of stats thrown together all at once. Let's look at it another way. Here's a list of shortstops kept by Sandlot owners prior to the 2009 MLB Draft: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Orlando Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Michael Young (now a 3B), Alexei Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, and prospects Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.
With this list of keeper-tagged shortstops, Ryan Theriot arguably becomes the BAO at shortstop in spite of the presence of oft-injured Rafael Furcal and aging Miguel Tejada in the 2009 MLB Draft. Committing $428k to a top-10 shortstop in his late-20s stands out like no other pick in the first round. Bobby Ayala, for my money (and not much of his own), not only made the best 1st-round pick of any team in the league but also made his previous 2008 transactions pay off in serious dividends.
Understand that this scenario is not the norm when dealing draft picks. Transactions involving draft picks are generally a toss-up and can go in either direction for anyone. Many factors can change one's fortune -- including keeper retention as we just saw in this example -- and work either for or against him.
Caveat emptor when dealing current or future draft picks; or, perhaps, caveat Bobby Ayala. You may get smoked just as Carl Spackler and Buckner did in this one.
Drafting Depth: Catchers
Let’s face it -- with catchers, you either take the big guys too early (Mauer, Soto, Martin, McCann) or you wait out everyone else for all the\ others. Last year, we said goodbye to consistent 2nd-tier catcher Pudge Rodriguez, who looks to be at best in a platoon situation after Marlins President David Samson went on record saying there was "zero" chance they would sign him.
But never fear, the 2nd-tier picked up a ton of new names; here’s how it shaped up:
2008 Stats R HR RBI SB AVG
Bengie Molina 46 16 95 0 .292
Ryan Doumit 71 15 69 2 .318
Kelly Shoppach 67 21 55 0 .261
Chris Iannetta 50 18 65 0 .264
Mike Napoli 39 20 49 7 .273
AJ Pierzynski 66 13 60 1 .281
Pablo Sandoval (145 AB) 24 3 24 0 .345
Victor Martinez (nevermind, he’ll rebound)
Molina and Pierzynski are the old-reliables; you know what you’re getting as long as age doesn't put them on the DL. Molina looks to benefit from the addition of Renteria and possibly a big OF bat (Dunn, Abreu, and Manny have all been rumored), but be wary of out-of-shape 34-year-old power hitters. And of course there is Victor Martinez coming off one of the most bizarre fantasy years anyone has ever had. My advice is to let someone else make him the 5th catcher taken in your draft, then take your catcher six to ten rounds later.
Of Shoppach, Iannetta, and Sandoval (who may qualify at 1B & 3B also, depending on your league format), Iannetta has the best pedigree. After a 1.000 OPS in 307 minor-league AB in 2006, he finally arrived last year, slugging .505 and showing signs of increased plate discipline in the 2nd half, decreasing his K/BB ratio. Shoppach looks like the Jack Cust of catchers (.261, 21HR, 133K in 352 AB).
Look for big years from Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli, both of whom enter a season for the first time with a strangle-hold on their starting spots. Doumit’s durability has always been a question, but he put up impressive numbers in 433 AB last year and is still considered an option in OF for the Pirates. So even if former top prospect Ronnie Paulino resurrects himself and gets a few games behind the plate, Doumit could get 540+ AB. Napoli’s 20HR in 227 AB were incredible, and doubling his 2007 stats isn’t out of reach if he can stay healthy.
There are other catchers waiting in the wings -- Dioner Navarro, Kurt Suzuki, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Snyder to name a few -- guys who will contribute to some stats (usually AVG) and may surprise with breakout years. With so many high-upside, low-risk options, and the likelihood there will always be a Paul Lo Duca or Gerald Laird in the FA pool at any given point in the season, you’re better off taking that five-tool OF or that slugging SS than a catcher too early.
But never fear, the 2nd-tier picked up a ton of new names; here’s how it shaped up:
2008 Stats R HR RBI SB AVG
Bengie Molina 46 16 95 0 .292
Ryan Doumit 71 15 69 2 .318
Kelly Shoppach 67 21 55 0 .261
Chris Iannetta 50 18 65 0 .264
Mike Napoli 39 20 49 7 .273
AJ Pierzynski 66 13 60 1 .281
Pablo Sandoval (145 AB) 24 3 24 0 .345
Victor Martinez (nevermind, he’ll rebound)
Molina and Pierzynski are the old-reliables; you know what you’re getting as long as age doesn't put them on the DL. Molina looks to benefit from the addition of Renteria and possibly a big OF bat (Dunn, Abreu, and Manny have all been rumored), but be wary of out-of-shape 34-year-old power hitters. And of course there is Victor Martinez coming off one of the most bizarre fantasy years anyone has ever had. My advice is to let someone else make him the 5th catcher taken in your draft, then take your catcher six to ten rounds later.
Of Shoppach, Iannetta, and Sandoval (who may qualify at 1B & 3B also, depending on your league format), Iannetta has the best pedigree. After a 1.000 OPS in 307 minor-league AB in 2006, he finally arrived last year, slugging .505 and showing signs of increased plate discipline in the 2nd half, decreasing his K/BB ratio. Shoppach looks like the Jack Cust of catchers (.261, 21HR, 133K in 352 AB).
Look for big years from Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli, both of whom enter a season for the first time with a strangle-hold on their starting spots. Doumit’s durability has always been a question, but he put up impressive numbers in 433 AB last year and is still considered an option in OF for the Pirates. So even if former top prospect Ronnie Paulino resurrects himself and gets a few games behind the plate, Doumit could get 540+ AB. Napoli’s 20HR in 227 AB were incredible, and doubling his 2007 stats isn’t out of reach if he can stay healthy.
There are other catchers waiting in the wings -- Dioner Navarro, Kurt Suzuki, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Snyder to name a few -- guys who will contribute to some stats (usually AVG) and may surprise with breakout years. With so many high-upside, low-risk options, and the likelihood there will always be a Paul Lo Duca or Gerald Laird in the FA pool at any given point in the season, you’re better off taking that five-tool OF or that slugging SS than a catcher too early.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Draft Sleepers for 2009
Everyone who has played Fantasy Baseball knows the funnest part of every season is the draft. Most also know that you don't win the league by having the best 1st-, 2nd-, or even 3rd-round pick. Most of these players selected are pretty even in value, and unless you completely bomb your selections, everyone will be on pretty equal footing. This brings us to the focus of this post -- draft sleepers! They come in every form: old, young, veteran, or rookie. There are many things people look for when making their list. I like to look at the previous two or three seasons when it comes to a veteran and entire minor league numbers when it concerns a rookie. Splits, BABIP, any other stats are useful in deciding on potential sleepers. Many times, I'll look at a hitter or pitcher's second-half numbers and see if they improved upon their first-half numbers.
Here's an example: Carlos Delgado. He had a pretty bad first-half; pre-All Star Break: 347 AB, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 78K, and a .248 BA. The numbers don't look horrible, but let's look at the post-All Star Stats: 251 AB, 21HR, 63 RBI, 46 K, and a .303 BA. In almost 100 fewer AB, Delgado crushed his first-half stats -- more HR, RBI, and a better BA. Now I'm not necessarily saying Delgado is a sleeper. His second-half numbers have been better in each of the past three years, but this is the type of trend you can investigate when picking sleepers. I have compiled a list of sleepers I will be using in all my upcoming drafts. I've separated it into hitters and pitchers.
Hitting Sleepers
Coco Crisp, CF Royals - I think Crisp will be a good source of steals without dragging down your BA like other SB specialists will; and he can provide you moderate power numbers for a speed specialist.
Cody Ross, LF Marlins - Cody has been a part-time player with Willingham owning left field. He's capable of playing all three OF positions and appears to have the LF job to himself. Don't expect many SB or a great BA, but 85/25/90/12/.260 doesn't seem out of the question.
Cameron Maybin, CF Marlins - Not a sleeper in the classic sense of being relatively unknown, but he's likely to go un-drafted unless owners take a flier on him in the late rounds. And if he gets the starting job, he will be a great source of steals. Draft Maybin knowing he while may not have the job by April, his upside is huge.
Jeff Francoeur, RF Braves - Again, this guy isn't an "unknown", but French likely won't be drafted until very late or not at all. He had a horrid '08 after expectations for a huge season. Over the off-season, Francoeur has tweaked his stance to help his approach at the plate, so we might expect numbers closer to his '07 season than that of '08.
Chris Davis 1b/3b Rangers - It's almost impossible to consider him a sleeper with how much love he's receiving, but there's still a chance you might not have heard of him. Only 22, Davis put up massive numbers in only 295 AB this past year: 17 HR, 55 RBI, and a .285 BA. There's no reason not to expect big things from him in years to come.
Pitching Sleepers
Randy Johnson, SP Giants - Now this guy's a big name, so many may be asking, "Huh? Sleeper?" Randy put together a fine performance last year with the D-Backs; and pitching at AT&T surely won't hurt his value this year. He will have a very good K/9 and won't hurt in other categories. Though he remains a injury risk, so draft accordingly.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP Giants - Surprise, two Giants SP in a row. Sanchez won't be your SP1 -- not even close -- but he's only owned in 30% of ESPN Leagues and he averaged a K per inning in '08. I'd like a lower ERA and WHIP in 2009, but his k/9 alone is enough to take a shot on him.
Manny Parra, SP Brewers - One of the top prospects out of the Brewers' farm system, Parra pitched exceptionally in the first half. He faded as the season wore on, but that's understandable considering it was his first full season in the majors.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP Astros- Injuries plagued what would have been a career year for Wandy. He averaged just under a K per inning, and while he didn't completely overcome his home/road splits, his road numbers weren't nearly as bad as in previous years and definitely not bad enough to scare me away from him.
Jair Jurrjens, SP Braves - While quietly putting up strong numbers, as guys like Edinson Volquez got most of the press, this young Braves pitcher looks to have a good sophomore year. If the Braves offense and bullpen can be trusted, he makes for a good SP3/SP4 in most leagues.
Jered Weaver, SP Angels - While only winning 11 games and having a mediocre-at-best 4.33 ERA, Weaver put up quality K numbers and had a very serviceable 1.28 WHIP. I expect good things for Weaver in '09.
Zach Greinke, SP Royals - Somehow, this guy is only owned in 78% of leagues on ESPN. While that might not sound bad, his numbers say otherwise. Greinke compiled 183 strikeouts while maintaining a 3.47 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He won't get the respect he deserves on draft day, so do yourself a favor and draft him.
Well guys, although neither of those lists is very large, I'm still in the middle of a draft and can't let too many secrets out. Feel free to let me know what guys you have pegged for sleepers. Remember, a sleeper isn't technically an unknown but rather a player whose value is going to be higher then his draft position indicates. So don't stretch or reach for someone you feel is a sleeper -- that's how you get stuck with Carl Pavano.
Here's an example: Carlos Delgado. He had a pretty bad first-half; pre-All Star Break: 347 AB, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 78K, and a .248 BA. The numbers don't look horrible, but let's look at the post-All Star Stats: 251 AB, 21HR, 63 RBI, 46 K, and a .303 BA. In almost 100 fewer AB, Delgado crushed his first-half stats -- more HR, RBI, and a better BA. Now I'm not necessarily saying Delgado is a sleeper. His second-half numbers have been better in each of the past three years, but this is the type of trend you can investigate when picking sleepers. I have compiled a list of sleepers I will be using in all my upcoming drafts. I've separated it into hitters and pitchers.
Hitting Sleepers
Coco Crisp, CF Royals - I think Crisp will be a good source of steals without dragging down your BA like other SB specialists will; and he can provide you moderate power numbers for a speed specialist.
Cody Ross, LF Marlins - Cody has been a part-time player with Willingham owning left field. He's capable of playing all three OF positions and appears to have the LF job to himself. Don't expect many SB or a great BA, but 85/25/90/12/.260 doesn't seem out of the question.
Cameron Maybin, CF Marlins - Not a sleeper in the classic sense of being relatively unknown, but he's likely to go un-drafted unless owners take a flier on him in the late rounds. And if he gets the starting job, he will be a great source of steals. Draft Maybin knowing he while may not have the job by April, his upside is huge.
Jeff Francoeur, RF Braves - Again, this guy isn't an "unknown", but French likely won't be drafted until very late or not at all. He had a horrid '08 after expectations for a huge season. Over the off-season, Francoeur has tweaked his stance to help his approach at the plate, so we might expect numbers closer to his '07 season than that of '08.
Chris Davis 1b/3b Rangers - It's almost impossible to consider him a sleeper with how much love he's receiving, but there's still a chance you might not have heard of him. Only 22, Davis put up massive numbers in only 295 AB this past year: 17 HR, 55 RBI, and a .285 BA. There's no reason not to expect big things from him in years to come.
Pitching Sleepers
Randy Johnson, SP Giants - Now this guy's a big name, so many may be asking, "Huh? Sleeper?" Randy put together a fine performance last year with the D-Backs; and pitching at AT&T surely won't hurt his value this year. He will have a very good K/9 and won't hurt in other categories. Though he remains a injury risk, so draft accordingly.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP Giants - Surprise, two Giants SP in a row. Sanchez won't be your SP1 -- not even close -- but he's only owned in 30% of ESPN Leagues and he averaged a K per inning in '08. I'd like a lower ERA and WHIP in 2009, but his k/9 alone is enough to take a shot on him.
Manny Parra, SP Brewers - One of the top prospects out of the Brewers' farm system, Parra pitched exceptionally in the first half. He faded as the season wore on, but that's understandable considering it was his first full season in the majors.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP Astros- Injuries plagued what would have been a career year for Wandy. He averaged just under a K per inning, and while he didn't completely overcome his home/road splits, his road numbers weren't nearly as bad as in previous years and definitely not bad enough to scare me away from him.
Jair Jurrjens, SP Braves - While quietly putting up strong numbers, as guys like Edinson Volquez got most of the press, this young Braves pitcher looks to have a good sophomore year. If the Braves offense and bullpen can be trusted, he makes for a good SP3/SP4 in most leagues.
Jered Weaver, SP Angels - While only winning 11 games and having a mediocre-at-best 4.33 ERA, Weaver put up quality K numbers and had a very serviceable 1.28 WHIP. I expect good things for Weaver in '09.
Zach Greinke, SP Royals - Somehow, this guy is only owned in 78% of leagues on ESPN. While that might not sound bad, his numbers say otherwise. Greinke compiled 183 strikeouts while maintaining a 3.47 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He won't get the respect he deserves on draft day, so do yourself a favor and draft him.
Well guys, although neither of those lists is very large, I'm still in the middle of a draft and can't let too many secrets out. Feel free to let me know what guys you have pegged for sleepers. Remember, a sleeper isn't technically an unknown but rather a player whose value is going to be higher then his draft position indicates. So don't stretch or reach for someone you feel is a sleeper -- that's how you get stuck with Carl Pavano.
Welcome to The Sandlot's Official Blog
For those of you nerdy enough to have followed The Sandlot over on ESPN.com's Message Boards, you already know what this league is all about. Sixteen of the most competitive, shrewd, cocky, and outspoken owners found on ESPN's FLB site have all gathered to attempt the experiment of one David Mack (damack1234). He proposed a salary keeper league on the Boards and sought out the best owners from the crop of guys he happened to "know" -- and I use that term loosely -- from the site.
Our 2008 season can be deemed an all-around success. Chris Thompson, aka Nellie's Holler, emerged as league champion with outstanding starting pitching (J. Santana, Felix, Burnett, Shields), strong hitting (Abreu, Pujols, Longoria, Pena, V. Guerrero), and a deep bullpen (Balfour/Percival, Rivera/Hanrahan, M. Rivera, Sherrill) to his credit. But who will emerge as 2009's champion? Only time will tell.
And as we march the long and lonely road to Opening Day, The Sandlot says "Hello!" to three new owners: Sleeve of Wizard, The Baseball Junkies, and Austin Puckettiers. So long to The Denver Nuggets, Pervin' The Dish, and Chicago Serbs. We barely knew ye...
The Sandlot is currently in its eighth round of the MLB Draft (http://killinmesmalls.proboards50.com, in case you are interested); as the draft concludes, more owners will contribute to this blog. We also plan on posting an entry with the complete 2009 MLB Draft list, pick by strenuous pick, and a handful of perspectives from some of the league's most nefarious owners (Lee__D, I'm looking at you).
Also be on the lookout for the Best/Worst MLB Draft Picks of 2009, complete with laugh tracks and the occasional stick-poking.
In short, 2009 looks to be an uproarious season with drama, tangents, rants, information, randomness, chaos, and a whole lot of fun. Get ready.
Our 2008 season can be deemed an all-around success. Chris Thompson, aka Nellie's Holler, emerged as league champion with outstanding starting pitching (J. Santana, Felix, Burnett, Shields), strong hitting (Abreu, Pujols, Longoria, Pena, V. Guerrero), and a deep bullpen (Balfour/Percival, Rivera/Hanrahan, M. Rivera, Sherrill) to his credit. But who will emerge as 2009's champion? Only time will tell.
And as we march the long and lonely road to Opening Day, The Sandlot says "Hello!" to three new owners: Sleeve of Wizard, The Baseball Junkies, and Austin Puckettiers. So long to The Denver Nuggets, Pervin' The Dish, and Chicago Serbs. We barely knew ye...
The Sandlot is currently in its eighth round of the MLB Draft (http://killinmesmalls.proboards50.com, in case you are interested); as the draft concludes, more owners will contribute to this blog. We also plan on posting an entry with the complete 2009 MLB Draft list, pick by strenuous pick, and a handful of perspectives from some of the league's most nefarious owners (Lee__D, I'm looking at you).
Also be on the lookout for the Best/Worst MLB Draft Picks of 2009, complete with laugh tracks and the occasional stick-poking.
In short, 2009 looks to be an uproarious season with drama, tangents, rants, information, randomness, chaos, and a whole lot of fun. Get ready.
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