Draft Sleepers for 2009

Everyone who has played Fantasy Baseball knows the funnest part of every season is the draft. Most also know that you don't win the league by having the best 1st-, 2nd-, or even 3rd-round pick. Most of these players selected are pretty even in value, and unless you completely bomb your selections, everyone will be on pretty equal footing. This brings us to the focus of this post -- draft sleepers! They come in every form: old, young, veteran, or rookie. There are many things people look for when making their list. I like to look at the previous two or three seasons when it comes to a veteran and entire minor league numbers when it concerns a rookie. Splits, BABIP, any other stats are useful in deciding on potential sleepers. Many times, I'll look at a hitter or pitcher's second-half numbers and see if they improved upon their first-half numbers.

Here's an example: Carlos Delgado. He had a pretty bad first-half; pre-All Star Break: 347 AB, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 78K, and a .248 BA. The numbers don't look horrible, but let's look at the post-All Star Stats: 251 AB, 21HR, 63 RBI, 46 K, and a .303 BA. In almost 100 fewer AB, Delgado crushed his first-half stats -- more HR, RBI, and a better BA. Now I'm not necessarily saying Delgado is a sleeper. His second-half numbers have been better in each of the past three years, but this is the type of trend you can investigate when picking sleepers. I have compiled a list of sleepers I will be using in all my upcoming drafts. I've separated it into hitters and pitchers.


Hitting Sleepers

Coco Crisp, CF Royals - I think Crisp will be a good source of steals without dragging down your BA like other SB specialists will; and he can provide you moderate power numbers for a speed specialist.

Cody Ross, LF Marlins - Cody has been a part-time player with Willingham owning left field. He's capable of playing all three OF positions and appears to have the LF job to himself. Don't expect many SB or a great BA, but 85/25/90/12/.260 doesn't seem out of the question.

Cameron Maybin, CF Marlins - Not a sleeper in the classic sense of being relatively unknown, but he's likely to go un-drafted unless owners take a flier on him in the late rounds. And if he gets the starting job, he will be a great source of steals. Draft Maybin knowing he while may not have the job by April, his upside is huge.

Jeff Francoeur, RF Braves - Again, this guy isn't an "unknown", but French likely won't be drafted until very late or not at all. He had a horrid '08 after expectations for a huge season. Over the off-season, Francoeur has tweaked his stance to help his approach at the plate, so we might expect numbers closer to his '07 season than that of '08.

Chris Davis 1b/3b Rangers - It's almost impossible to consider him a sleeper with how much love he's receiving, but there's still a chance you might not have heard of him. Only 22, Davis put up massive numbers in only 295 AB this past year: 17 HR, 55 RBI, and a .285 BA. There's no reason not to expect big things from him in years to come.



Pitching Sleepers

Randy Johnson, SP Giants - Now this guy's a big name, so many may be asking, "Huh? Sleeper?" Randy put together a fine performance last year with the D-Backs; and pitching at AT&T surely won't hurt his value this year. He will have a very good K/9 and won't hurt in other categories. Though he remains a injury risk, so draft accordingly.

Jonathan Sanchez, SP Giants - Surprise, two Giants SP in a row. Sanchez won't be your SP1 -- not even close -- but he's only owned in 30% of ESPN Leagues and he averaged a K per inning in '08. I'd like a lower ERA and WHIP in 2009, but his k/9 alone is enough to take a shot on him.

Manny Parra, SP Brewers - One of the top prospects out of the Brewers' farm system, Parra pitched exceptionally in the first half. He faded as the season wore on, but that's understandable considering it was his first full season in the majors.

Wandy Rodriguez, SP Astros- Injuries plagued what would have been a career year for Wandy. He averaged just under a K per inning, and while he didn't completely overcome his home/road splits, his road numbers weren't nearly as bad as in previous years and definitely not bad enough to scare me away from him.

Jair Jurrjens, SP Braves - While quietly putting up strong numbers, as guys like Edinson Volquez got most of the press, this young Braves pitcher looks to have a good sophomore year. If the Braves offense and bullpen can be trusted, he makes for a good SP3/SP4 in most leagues.

Jered Weaver, SP Angels - While only winning 11 games and having a mediocre-at-best 4.33 ERA, Weaver put up quality K numbers and had a very serviceable 1.28 WHIP. I expect good things for Weaver in '09.

Zach Greinke, SP Royals - Somehow, this guy is only owned in 78% of leagues on ESPN. While that might not sound bad, his numbers say otherwise. Greinke compiled 183 strikeouts while maintaining a 3.47 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He won't get the respect he deserves on draft day, so do yourself a favor and draft him.


Well guys, although neither of those lists is very large, I'm still in the middle of a draft and can't let too many secrets out. Feel free to let me know what guys you have pegged for sleepers. Remember, a sleeper isn't technically an unknown but rather a player whose value is going to be higher then his draft position indicates. So don't stretch or reach for someone you feel is a sleeper -- that's how you get stuck with Carl Pavano.