Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala

Many of the Sandlot Blog faithful will have familiarized themselves with the ins and outs of The Sandlot's league settings, but just to be safe, let me give a brief overview: 16 teams; 10 MLB keepers; eight MiLB keepers per team -- at least for the time being. Those numbers might change in our annual Sandlot Winter Meetings. (EDIT: Complete Winter Meetings slate will appear in Monday post.)

Presumably, at least on the big-league level, this implies 90 to 95% of the top-160 projected draftees will already be unavailable. As such, the first round of the ongoing 2009 draft would likely resemble a 17th-round crop in a typical 10-team ESPN or Yahoo! league. This sometimes isn't the case in Sandlot as salary figures, age, career years and upside all factor into keeper selections.

The following selections were made in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft:

1. Keyser Soze's Major League Minions -- JJ Hardy, SS Brewers, $2.65 MM
2. Bobby Ayala -- Max Scherzer, SP Diamondbacks, $1.075 MM
3. Rusty Trombones -- Johnny Cueto, SP Reds, $390k
4. Just the Koufax, Ma'am -- Jorge Cantu, 3B Marlins, $500k
5. The Baseball Junkies -- Andre Ethier, OF Dodgers, $424.5k
6. Sleeve of Wizard -- Mariano Rivera, RP Yankees, $15 MM
7. Killer B's -- Bobby Abreu, OF Free Agent, $16 MM
8. Tijuana Mamas -- Jeff Francoeur, OF Braves, $460k
9. Austin Puckettiers -- Raul Ibanez, OF Phillies, $5.5 MM
10. The Jimi Hendry Experience -- Milton Bradley, OF Cubs, $5 MM
11. Lunatic Fringe -- A.J. Burnett, SP Yankees, $12 MM
12. Bobby Ayala -- Ryan Theriot, SS Cubs, $428k
13. Bobby Ayala -- Brian Fuentes, RP Angels, $5.05 MM
14. Blue Balls Busters -- Jhonny Peralta, SS/[3B] Indians, $2.25 MM
15. Nuke LaLoosh Express -- Javier Vazquez, SP Braves, $11.5 MM
16. Nellie's Holler -- Matt Capps, RP Pirates, $500k

Right away, some might find aberrations in the aforementioned assumption of 16.x value found in the first round of this draft -- most noticeably, Rivera, Abreu, Ibanez, Bradley, Burnett, Theriot, and Vazquez all went in this round along with a few mid-tier closer options like Fuentes and Capps.

These selections immediately indicate two significant factors in this league: age and salary. As a former Vazquez owner myself, acquiring him and the dreadful shell of a 3B once known as Chone Figgins in exchange for a future pick, Chipper Jones (let the berating begin), and Brad Penny, I did not feel the hefty ERA and WHIP rates Vazquez brought to the table were justified by his K/9 rate and W-L record. As such, his $11.5 MM salary didn't seem to fit in spite of an intriguing move to Atlanta for 2009 and beyond. But I digress.

Another interesting factor in this first round is seeing Bobby Ayala with three picks while other owners -- Carl Spackler and The House That Buckner Built -- made no selections. Ah, the bittersweet smell of draft-pick trades. Let's dig deeper into this situation and find out if it was really worth the trouble of acquiring two additional first-round picks.

Let me preface the rest of this article with the following statement: I do not mind trades involving draft picks, though I am generally against them for the sake of a few nerdy acronyms: ADP (average draft position), PRK (position ranking), BAO (best available option), and VORP (value over replacement player). Let me also preface the following brief analysis by saying that I am not picking on Bobby Ayala. He's merely an example for the sake of flushing out my point.

On July 25, 2008, Bobby and Buckner completed this trade (don't ask me why):

Bobby Ayala sends: $10 MM (salary coverage), Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, C.J. Wilson, J.C. Romero, Scott Linebrink, and his 16th- and 18th-round draft picks, which we have yet to see.

Buckner sends: his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick and his 1st- and 6th-round MLB picks, which became Theriot and presumed Rockies closer Huston Street -- totaling $3.728 MM out of the allotted $125 MM this season.

Back on February 23, 2008, Bobby and Carl Spackler completed this trade:

Bobby Ayala sends his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick (#31 overall).

Carl Spackler sends his 1st-round MLB draft pick, which became Fuentes ($5.05 MM).

Essentially, as Bobby Ayala had previously admitted he was building for the future from the start of '08, he basically traded his 16th- and 18th-round MLB and 2nd-round MiLB draft picks for the opportunity to draft Theriot, Fuentes, and Street respectively ($8.778 MM in combined salary figures). Sure, Bobby finished in 10th place in 2008 while Spackler and Buckner finished 4th and 5th; but his build-for-2009 strategy has already paid off. Why?

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim introduced a whopping 87 save opportunities to its bullpen last season. Francisco Rodriguez managed to break the MLB record and convert 62 of 69 save opportunities. Scot Shields converted four of nine (hey, somebody had to give that guy a break). Colorado's Rockies yielded 59 opportunities while only managing to convert 36 as a team (Fuentes: 30/34). This can only mean one thing: Fuentes, coming off of a hot second-half 2008 performance, looks to be a solid replacement to K-Rod in Los Angeles. A low-3 ERA with 40+ save conversions seems very likely. Huston Street, on the other hand, moves to a shaky Colorado pitching staff and now must battle with determined RP Manny Corpas to reclaim his place as closer. Street's the wild card in this trio.

Ryan Theriot is easily the strongest selection of the three. Among his fellow shortstops with more than 100 AB in 2008 -- lenient, I know -- Theriot finished 9th in AB (580) and R (85); 8th in H (178); T-5 in 3B (4); 13th in TB (208); 2nd in BB (73); 5th in SB (22); 4th in OBP (.387); and 4th in AVG (.307). Theriot cemented himself as a top-10 shortstop option and, arguably, a top-5 option in The Sandlot given his contract and MLB experience -- 2008 was only his second full season with the Cubs.

I understand that's a whole lot of stats thrown together all at once. Let's look at it another way. Here's a list of shortstops kept by Sandlot owners prior to the 2009 MLB Draft: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Orlando Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Michael Young (now a 3B), Alexei Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, and prospects Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.

With this list of keeper-tagged shortstops, Ryan Theriot arguably becomes the BAO at shortstop in spite of the presence of oft-injured Rafael Furcal and aging Miguel Tejada in the 2009 MLB Draft. Committing $428k to a top-10 shortstop in his late-20s stands out like no other pick in the first round. Bobby Ayala, for my money (and not much of his own), not only made the best 1st-round pick of any team in the league but also made his previous 2008 transactions pay off in serious dividends.

Understand that this scenario is not the norm when dealing draft picks. Transactions involving draft picks are generally a toss-up and can go in either direction for anyone. Many factors can change one's fortune -- including keeper retention as we just saw in this example -- and work either for or against him.

Caveat emptor when dealing current or future draft picks; or, perhaps, caveat Bobby Ayala. You may get smoked just as Carl Spackler and Buckner did in this one.