Monday, February 16, 2009

Best and Worst picks, rounds 6-10

The opinions expressed here are not the opinions of Sandlot Inc, or any subsidiaries. They are only the opinions of Bobby Ayala.


Round 6
Best
-Sean Gallagher, 6.08, (#88 overall) Austin Pucketteers. Coming off a shaky year last season that got shakier after the trade to Oakland, Gallagher still managed to maintain the same high K rates we saw in the minors. His control problems (5.7BB/9 & 1.1HR/9 w/Oak) should smooth out, he just turned 23, and there’s something about Oakland and pitchers.
(Honorable Mentions: Bengie Molina, 6.16, #96, Keyser Soze. Molina hit .316 w/RISP batting cleanup all year, which led to 95 RBI, leading all catchers. Should bat cleanup again, with the added help of Renteria. Oliver Perez, 6.15, (#95 overall) Bobby Ayala, the last SP left you could pencil in for 8K/9 and 14 wins.)

Worst
-Anibal Sanchez, 6.14, (#94) Carl Spackler. Injuries and control problems have plagued Sanchez since his 2006 no-hitter, a little too risky to warrant his selection before Perez. Spackler’s next pick came 3 rounds later, so this might have been his only chance to take him, but with only 3 other SP on his roster at the time, dependability becomes much more important.
(Honorable Mention: Kendry Morales 6.09 #89 Tijuana Mammas. The Angels are going to give him the first shot at being the everyday 1B, but his skills in Cuba and Salt Lake City still haven’t translated to the Bigs. Could be a huge bust, & Adam LaRoche went 13 picks later.)


Round 7
Best
-Adam LaRoche, 7.06, (#102) House that Buckner Built. If he played for any other team he’d get 100 R and 110 RBI easy. As it is, you have to settle for something more like 75/25/95 along with a respectable .280/.350. And just imagine if he figures out how to hit in April, his career 2nd half numbers are MVP-ish.
(Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell, 7.04, #100, Koufax. If healthy he’s one of the best RBI-men in the whole draft.)

Worst
-Rafael Perez, 7.15, (#111) Buckner. Considering that he was the 2nd zero-chance-to-close guy taken in the draft (Putz,) and 8 RPs with real chances to save were taken in the next 2 rounds, it’s a very confusing pick after Buckner made 3 smart picks earlier in the round, (Crisp, LaRoche, and Galarraga.) Perez also backslid in ERA, H/9, & BB/9, while Jensen Lewis slipped in and may have even taken over the primary set-up role.
(Honorable Mention: Matt Joyce, 7.08, #104, Tijuana Mammas. I’m not a believer he’ll do much to improve his .252/.339/.492 line. Cody Ross 6 rounds later will probably get more fantasy starts.)


Round 8
Best
-Ryan Garko, 8.05, (#117) Bobby Ayala. Call me a homer, but I don't pick guys I don't like, and I’m convinced this is the year he breaks out for 30HR and 110RBI. He’ll put up the same numbers as Giambi, is more likely to be a keeper, and he costs $20 mil less.
(Honorable Mention: Brandon Lyon 8.09 #121 Tijuana Mommas. Great timing, drafted him right after Detroit signed him to probably be their closer. 2nd straight year Lyon was drafted right after signing with a new team.)

Worst
-Dustin McGowan 8.11 (#123) Sleeve of Wizard. Optimistically he’s out til May and will get 25 starts. Pessimistically he’ll be back in June and have a late-August stint on the DL with shoulder soreness, 17 starts, and only a couple of those showing why he was so highly touted last year. SS was a greater need at the time he was drafted, though could end up being a last-resort keeper regardless.


Round 9
Best
-Scott Downs 9.12, #140, Nuke Laloosh; & Ryan Madsen 9.02, #130, Wizard Sleeve, probably the top two sources of Holds (and great ERA & WHIP) after JJ Putz.
(Honorable Mention: Khalil Green 9.16, #144, Nellie’s Holler. The slugging SS seemed to slip through the cracks, especially with the number of teams who still needed a SS when he was taken.)

Worst
-Rajai Davis 9.04, #132, Just the Koufax. Not a bad pick id taken 4 rounds later, Rajai gives you 30-40 SB at the cost of everything else. 400 ABs is a stretch in that crowded OF/DH platoon.
-Blake Dewitt 9.07, #135, Killer B’s. He was a fantasy black hole last year, and his ceiling is probably Omar Vizquel-ish. Would have been better to take a chance on the younger and higher-end Bonifacio or Burriss a few rounds later.


Round 10
Best
-Hideki Matsui 10.14, #158, Rusty Trombones. When drafted, Matsui had the best 2007 of any remaining batter, and 100/25/100 is likely for a healthy 2009.
(Honorable Mention: Tim Redding, 10.13, #157, Just the Koufax. Could be Ted Lilly-light with the Mets.)

Worst-Fernando Rodney 10.03, #147, Triple B’s. He’s declined in each of the last 3 seasons in ERA by about 0.70 each year, from 2.86 to 4.91 last year. In line to get a similar # of hold opportunities as better guys taken 3 or 4 rounds later, Damaso Marte, Octavio Dotel.

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