Saturday, January 24, 2009

Drafting Depth: Catchers

Let’s face it -- with catchers, you either take the big guys too early (Mauer, Soto, Martin, McCann) or you wait out everyone else for all the\ others. Last year, we said goodbye to consistent 2nd-tier catcher Pudge Rodriguez, who looks to be at best in a platoon situation after Marlins President David Samson went on record saying there was "zero" chance they would sign him.

But never fear, the 2nd-tier picked up a ton of new names; here’s how it shaped up:

2008 Stats R HR RBI SB AVG
Bengie Molina 46 16 95 0 .292
Ryan Doumit 71 15 69 2 .318
Kelly Shoppach 67 21 55 0 .261
Chris Iannetta 50 18 65 0 .264
Mike Napoli 39 20 49 7 .273
AJ Pierzynski 66 13 60 1 .281
Pablo Sandoval (145 AB) 24 3 24 0 .345
Victor Martinez (nevermind, he’ll rebound)

Molina and Pierzynski are the old-reliables; you know what you’re getting as long as age doesn't put them on the DL. Molina looks to benefit from the addition of Renteria and possibly a big OF bat (Dunn, Abreu, and Manny have all been rumored), but be wary of out-of-shape 34-year-old power hitters. And of course there is Victor Martinez coming off one of the most bizarre fantasy years anyone has ever had. My advice is to let someone else make him the 5th catcher taken in your draft, then take your catcher six to ten rounds later.

Of Shoppach, Iannetta, and Sandoval (who may qualify at 1B & 3B also, depending on your league format), Iannetta has the best pedigree. After a 1.000 OPS in 307 minor-league AB in 2006, he finally arrived last year, slugging .505 and showing signs of increased plate discipline in the 2nd half, decreasing his K/BB ratio. Shoppach looks like the Jack Cust of catchers (.261, 21HR, 133K in 352 AB).

Look for big years from Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli, both of whom enter a season for the first time with a strangle-hold on their starting spots. Doumit’s durability has always been a question, but he put up impressive numbers in 433 AB last year and is still considered an option in OF for the Pirates. So even if former top prospect Ronnie Paulino resurrects himself and gets a few games behind the plate, Doumit could get 540+ AB. Napoli’s 20HR in 227 AB were incredible, and doubling his 2007 stats isn’t out of reach if he can stay healthy.

There are other catchers waiting in the wings -- Dioner Navarro, Kurt Suzuki, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Snyder to name a few -- guys who will contribute to some stats (usually AVG) and may surprise with breakout years. With so many high-upside, low-risk options, and the likelihood there will always be a Paul Lo Duca or Gerald Laird in the FA pool at any given point in the season, you’re better off taking that five-tool OF or that slugging SS than a catcher too early.

1 comment:

  1. Let's forget ESPN's new "Can't Miss Kid" Matt Wieters. He's the Evan Longoria of this years draft in that he probably won't start out the year in the bigs but is still getting plenty of play in drafts.

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