The opinions expressed here are not the opinions of Sandlot Inc, or any subsidiaries. They are only the opinions of Bobby Ayala.
Round 6
Best
-Sean Gallagher, 6.08, (#88 overall) Austin Pucketteers. Coming off a shaky year last season that got shakier after the trade to Oakland, Gallagher still managed to maintain the same high K rates we saw in the minors. His control problems (5.7BB/9 & 1.1HR/9 w/Oak) should smooth out, he just turned 23, and there’s something about Oakland and pitchers.
(Honorable Mentions: Bengie Molina, 6.16, #96, Keyser Soze. Molina hit .316 w/RISP batting cleanup all year, which led to 95 RBI, leading all catchers. Should bat cleanup again, with the added help of Renteria. Oliver Perez, 6.15, (#95 overall) Bobby Ayala, the last SP left you could pencil in for 8K/9 and 14 wins.)
Worst
-Anibal Sanchez, 6.14, (#94) Carl Spackler. Injuries and control problems have plagued Sanchez since his 2006 no-hitter, a little too risky to warrant his selection before Perez. Spackler’s next pick came 3 rounds later, so this might have been his only chance to take him, but with only 3 other SP on his roster at the time, dependability becomes much more important.
(Honorable Mention: Kendry Morales 6.09 #89 Tijuana Mammas. The Angels are going to give him the first shot at being the everyday 1B, but his skills in Cuba and Salt Lake City still haven’t translated to the Bigs. Could be a huge bust, & Adam LaRoche went 13 picks later.)
Round 7
Best
-Adam LaRoche, 7.06, (#102) House that Buckner Built. If he played for any other team he’d get 100 R and 110 RBI easy. As it is, you have to settle for something more like 75/25/95 along with a respectable .280/.350. And just imagine if he figures out how to hit in April, his career 2nd half numbers are MVP-ish.
(Honorable Mention: Mike Lowell, 7.04, #100, Koufax. If healthy he’s one of the best RBI-men in the whole draft.)
Worst
-Rafael Perez, 7.15, (#111) Buckner. Considering that he was the 2nd zero-chance-to-close guy taken in the draft (Putz,) and 8 RPs with real chances to save were taken in the next 2 rounds, it’s a very confusing pick after Buckner made 3 smart picks earlier in the round, (Crisp, LaRoche, and Galarraga.) Perez also backslid in ERA, H/9, & BB/9, while Jensen Lewis slipped in and may have even taken over the primary set-up role.
(Honorable Mention: Matt Joyce, 7.08, #104, Tijuana Mammas. I’m not a believer he’ll do much to improve his .252/.339/.492 line. Cody Ross 6 rounds later will probably get more fantasy starts.)
Round 8
Best
-Ryan Garko, 8.05, (#117) Bobby Ayala. Call me a homer, but I don't pick guys I don't like, and I’m convinced this is the year he breaks out for 30HR and 110RBI. He’ll put up the same numbers as Giambi, is more likely to be a keeper, and he costs $20 mil less.
(Honorable Mention: Brandon Lyon 8.09 #121 Tijuana Mommas. Great timing, drafted him right after Detroit signed him to probably be their closer. 2nd straight year Lyon was drafted right after signing with a new team.)
Worst
-Dustin McGowan 8.11 (#123) Sleeve of Wizard. Optimistically he’s out til May and will get 25 starts. Pessimistically he’ll be back in June and have a late-August stint on the DL with shoulder soreness, 17 starts, and only a couple of those showing why he was so highly touted last year. SS was a greater need at the time he was drafted, though could end up being a last-resort keeper regardless.
Round 9
Best
-Scott Downs 9.12, #140, Nuke Laloosh; & Ryan Madsen 9.02, #130, Wizard Sleeve, probably the top two sources of Holds (and great ERA & WHIP) after JJ Putz.
(Honorable Mention: Khalil Green 9.16, #144, Nellie’s Holler. The slugging SS seemed to slip through the cracks, especially with the number of teams who still needed a SS when he was taken.)
Worst
-Rajai Davis 9.04, #132, Just the Koufax. Not a bad pick id taken 4 rounds later, Rajai gives you 30-40 SB at the cost of everything else. 400 ABs is a stretch in that crowded OF/DH platoon.
-Blake Dewitt 9.07, #135, Killer B’s. He was a fantasy black hole last year, and his ceiling is probably Omar Vizquel-ish. Would have been better to take a chance on the younger and higher-end Bonifacio or Burriss a few rounds later.
Round 10
Best
-Hideki Matsui 10.14, #158, Rusty Trombones. When drafted, Matsui had the best 2007 of any remaining batter, and 100/25/100 is likely for a healthy 2009.
(Honorable Mention: Tim Redding, 10.13, #157, Just the Koufax. Could be Ted Lilly-light with the Mets.)
Worst-Fernando Rodney 10.03, #147, Triple B’s. He’s declined in each of the last 3 seasons in ERA by about 0.70 each year, from 2.86 to 4.91 last year. In line to get a similar # of hold opportunities as better guys taken 3 or 4 rounds later, Damaso Marte, Octavio Dotel.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Best and Worst picks, rounds 1-5
As a number cruncher and amateur day-trader in stocks (with limited gains and few losses,) I appreciate value analysis. With this in mind I’m breaking down the standout picks, for better or worse, in each round.
Fellow Sandlotters, please don’t take this personally, criticism of a pick is not an attack on your character, just my opinion and therefore very fallible. Please feel free to debate my observations…
Round 1
Best
-Max Scherzer 1.02 (#2 overall) Bobby Ayala. More than any other player in the draft, Scherzer should’ve been kept (Koufax kept 3 RP instead, Soria, Wood, and Marmol.) He could be the next Lincecum, K/9 somewhere around 10, low 3’s ERA, and with an increase to 12 keepers next year the potential value is off the scale.
(Honorable Mention: Ryan Theriot 1.12, #12, Bobby Ayala. See the previous post “Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala.”)
Worst
-Jeff Francoeur 1.08 (#8 overall) Tijuana Mammas. Was the 3rd OF taken in the draft, despite coming off an Andruw Jones-type season of career lows in R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, & OBP. Wait, that’s every fantasy stat in our league. (My bad, his OBP was 0.01 lower in 2006.) He had fewer HR (11) in 599 AB than he did in 2005 (14) when he only had 257 AB. At least his K rate improved to a balmy 1/5.396 AB.
(Honorable Mention: Mariano Rivera 1.06, #6, Sleeve of Wizard. $15 mil for a 39-yr-old closer.)
Round 2
Best
-No stand out picks this round, 4 closers taken out of necessity, solid veterans like Dye, Burrell and Lilly, but some young guys like Denard Span and John Maine might pay off huge.
Worst
-Todd Wellemeyer 2.16 (#32 overall) Keyser Soze. A 30-yr-old journeyman who put together a decent year in his first full season as a starter, he looks more like a product of LaRussa/Duncan magic than a legitimate ace-in-the-making. In 2008 he averaged under 6IP per outing with unimpressive K/9 and K/BB ratios, and declined in the 2nd half. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jesse Litsch, Chris Volstad, and Jonathan Sanchez were the next 4 SP taken, all of whom are younger, have more upside, and arguably looked better last year than Wellemeyer ever has.
Round 3
Best
-Mark DeRosa, 3.13 (#45 overall) Carl Spackler. The last 2B in his tier, the last 2B you could probably lock in at 100 R, 20HR, and 90 RBI, oh and he qualifies at 3B and OF too. Should see an increase in AB (505 last year,) could bat 2nd behind Sizemore in front of VMart and Pronk. Immediately after Spackler took him, half the league let him know DeRosa was next on their queue.
(Honorable Mention: The aforementioned 4 SP, Jimenez, Litsch, Volstad, Sanchez, the class of young SP still available in the draft.)
Worst
-Dallas McPherson, 3.09 (#41) Austin Pucketteers. Yeah, I know the guy hit 1000 HR in AAA last year, but his career #s against big-league pitching show him to be a .250 hitter who never walks and Ks once every 3 AB. He’ll also be competing with Wes Helms for playing time, and possibly Jorge Cantu if Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison immerge this year. McPherson gets my vote for the Most-Likely-to-be-Traded-for-Random-Average-Relief-Pitcher Award.
(Honorable Mentions: Carlos Gonzalez, 3.16 (#48) Nellie’s Holler, who could’ve gone 4 rounds later, and Ian Stewart, 3.15 (#47) Rusty Trombones, who I’m guessing was drafted to fill a MI role. Let’s hope he actually does get that starting 2B job over Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes so he can pick up 2B eligibility as quickly as possible, especially after what Rusty traded for him.)
Round 4
Best
- In the 4th round, Nuke Laloosh added Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard, Jason Bartlett, Jack Cust, and Johnny Damon, 2 power guys, a speed guy, a SP primed for a top-tier comeback he later traded for CC Sabathia, and Damon, 4.14 (#62,) the last legitimate 6-tool OF left. Damon became the 23rd player on Nuke’s roster with a salary over $10 mil. Stop trading him cash, people.
Worst
-Adam Lind, 4.06, (#54) Lunatic Fringe. Sorry Commish, and sorry Keyser, who had him all last year and went on record that he wanted to keep him (and almost did over Ian Kinsler.) Lind is a mediocre 4th OF (Wells, Rios, and Snider will get the bulk of the AB,) who has proven he can hit for AVG in the minors, and that’s about it. 77 HR & 10 SB in 2257 career professional AB is not exactly going to hurt your team, but for a 4th round pick it’s not helping much either.
(Honorable Mentions: Placido Polanco and Mike Fontenot, two 2B taken way too early.)
Round 5
Best
-Jim Thome, 5.10 (#74) Keyser Soze. Sure he’ll turn 39 this season, but he’s hit at least 30 HR & 85 RBI in 11 of the last 12 seasons, and he was the best power option left. He’s probably got one more season left of that kind of production, and guys like him can make the difference between 1st and 2nd.
(Honorable Mention: Joey Devine, 5.07, #71, Killer B’s. If he gets all the save opportunities, and that’s a big if with Ziegler, Casilla, and Springer there, he could be one of the best closers in the game.)
Worst
-Hank Blalock, 5.14 (#78) Triple B’s. A career of underachieving and injuries; the Rangers begging gold-glove SS Michael Young to take over at 3B in a crowded infield; no apparent suitors asking about him; all this shapes up to be a season of uncertainty for an inconsistent slugger taken 2 rounds before Mike Lowell and Casey Blake.
(Honorable Mentions: JJ Putz, 5.13, #77, Carl Spackler, taken 34 spots before the next set-up guy. He’s good, but how about Ziegler or Balfour going in round 8? John Smoltz, 5.16, #80, Nellie’s Holler, because he’ll be out until July and maybe not 100% until August. Justin Duchsherer 2 picks later looks a lot better.)
As a number cruncher and amateur day-trader in stocks (with limited gains and few losses,) I appreciate value analysis. With this in mind I’m breaking down the standout picks, for better or worse, in each round.
Fellow Sandlotters, please don’t take this personally, criticism of a pick is not an attack on your character, just my opinion and therefore very fallible. Please feel free to debate my observations…
Round 1
Best
-Max Scherzer 1.02 (#2 overall) Bobby Ayala. More than any other player in the draft, Scherzer should’ve been kept (Koufax kept 3 RP instead, Soria, Wood, and Marmol.) He could be the next Lincecum, K/9 somewhere around 10, low 3’s ERA, and with an increase to 12 keepers next year the potential value is off the scale.
(Honorable Mention: Ryan Theriot 1.12, #12, Bobby Ayala. See the previous post “Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala.”)
Worst
-Jeff Francoeur 1.08 (#8 overall) Tijuana Mammas. Was the 3rd OF taken in the draft, despite coming off an Andruw Jones-type season of career lows in R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, & OBP. Wait, that’s every fantasy stat in our league. (My bad, his OBP was 0.01 lower in 2006.) He had fewer HR (11) in 599 AB than he did in 2005 (14) when he only had 257 AB. At least his K rate improved to a balmy 1/5.396 AB.
(Honorable Mention: Mariano Rivera 1.06, #6, Sleeve of Wizard. $15 mil for a 39-yr-old closer.)
Round 2
Best
-No stand out picks this round, 4 closers taken out of necessity, solid veterans like Dye, Burrell and Lilly, but some young guys like Denard Span and John Maine might pay off huge.
Worst
-Todd Wellemeyer 2.16 (#32 overall) Keyser Soze. A 30-yr-old journeyman who put together a decent year in his first full season as a starter, he looks more like a product of LaRussa/Duncan magic than a legitimate ace-in-the-making. In 2008 he averaged under 6IP per outing with unimpressive K/9 and K/BB ratios, and declined in the 2nd half. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jesse Litsch, Chris Volstad, and Jonathan Sanchez were the next 4 SP taken, all of whom are younger, have more upside, and arguably looked better last year than Wellemeyer ever has.
Round 3
Best
-Mark DeRosa, 3.13 (#45 overall) Carl Spackler. The last 2B in his tier, the last 2B you could probably lock in at 100 R, 20HR, and 90 RBI, oh and he qualifies at 3B and OF too. Should see an increase in AB (505 last year,) could bat 2nd behind Sizemore in front of VMart and Pronk. Immediately after Spackler took him, half the league let him know DeRosa was next on their queue.
(Honorable Mention: The aforementioned 4 SP, Jimenez, Litsch, Volstad, Sanchez, the class of young SP still available in the draft.)
Worst
-Dallas McPherson, 3.09 (#41) Austin Pucketteers. Yeah, I know the guy hit 1000 HR in AAA last year, but his career #s against big-league pitching show him to be a .250 hitter who never walks and Ks once every 3 AB. He’ll also be competing with Wes Helms for playing time, and possibly Jorge Cantu if Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison immerge this year. McPherson gets my vote for the Most-Likely-to-be-Traded-for-Random-Average-Relief-Pitcher Award.
(Honorable Mentions: Carlos Gonzalez, 3.16 (#48) Nellie’s Holler, who could’ve gone 4 rounds later, and Ian Stewart, 3.15 (#47) Rusty Trombones, who I’m guessing was drafted to fill a MI role. Let’s hope he actually does get that starting 2B job over Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes so he can pick up 2B eligibility as quickly as possible, especially after what Rusty traded for him.)
Round 4
Best
- In the 4th round, Nuke Laloosh added Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard, Jason Bartlett, Jack Cust, and Johnny Damon, 2 power guys, a speed guy, a SP primed for a top-tier comeback he later traded for CC Sabathia, and Damon, 4.14 (#62,) the last legitimate 6-tool OF left. Damon became the 23rd player on Nuke’s roster with a salary over $10 mil. Stop trading him cash, people.
Worst
-Adam Lind, 4.06, (#54) Lunatic Fringe. Sorry Commish, and sorry Keyser, who had him all last year and went on record that he wanted to keep him (and almost did over Ian Kinsler.) Lind is a mediocre 4th OF (Wells, Rios, and Snider will get the bulk of the AB,) who has proven he can hit for AVG in the minors, and that’s about it. 77 HR & 10 SB in 2257 career professional AB is not exactly going to hurt your team, but for a 4th round pick it’s not helping much either.
(Honorable Mentions: Placido Polanco and Mike Fontenot, two 2B taken way too early.)
Round 5
Best
-Jim Thome, 5.10 (#74) Keyser Soze. Sure he’ll turn 39 this season, but he’s hit at least 30 HR & 85 RBI in 11 of the last 12 seasons, and he was the best power option left. He’s probably got one more season left of that kind of production, and guys like him can make the difference between 1st and 2nd.
(Honorable Mention: Joey Devine, 5.07, #71, Killer B’s. If he gets all the save opportunities, and that’s a big if with Ziegler, Casilla, and Springer there, he could be one of the best closers in the game.)
Worst
-Hank Blalock, 5.14 (#78) Triple B’s. A career of underachieving and injuries; the Rangers begging gold-glove SS Michael Young to take over at 3B in a crowded infield; no apparent suitors asking about him; all this shapes up to be a season of uncertainty for an inconsistent slugger taken 2 rounds before Mike Lowell and Casey Blake.
(Honorable Mentions: JJ Putz, 5.13, #77, Carl Spackler, taken 34 spots before the next set-up guy. He’s good, but how about Ziegler or Balfour going in round 8? John Smoltz, 5.16, #80, Nellie’s Holler, because he’ll be out until July and maybe not 100% until August. Justin Duchsherer 2 picks later looks a lot better.)
Mildly interesting draft statistics (through 12 rounds)
From the rosters at the end of last season:
Who had the best set of players that weren't kept?
-Just the Koufax has had all but 2 of his players drafted, only Miguel Montero and Brett Gardner are left.
-Lunatic Fringe has 4 remaining undrafted players, Triple B's has 5. Talk about depth!
Who had the worst set of players that weren't kept?
-Baseball Junkies unfortunately inherited the worst team in the league, formally Pervin the Dish, who still has 15 unkept players undrafted. That means only 5 former Pervies were drafted thusfar.
-Other notables: Sleeve of Wizard (formally Denver Nuggets) has 14, Killer B's & Austin Pucketteers (formally Chicago Serbs) have 13, and Bobby Ayala has 12 (7 are SP.)
The most abundant position left of unkept players is RP, with 45. There are 29 SP left, and 25 OF.
There are 19 remaining unkept players that qualify at MI, and only 15 at CI.
There are 13 remaining unkept C
The highest draft pick from 2008 that wasn't kept? JJ Putz was taken #8 overall by Triple B's in 2008. Erik Bedard went #10 to Nuke Laloosh, and Aaron Harang went #14 to Serbs.
The best draft value of 2008? Ryan Doumit was the latest player drafted that ended up being kept, at 19.12 (#300 overall) by Rusty Trombones. Unfortunately he dropped Doumit before the season began and Bobby Ayala picked him up. Justin Duchsherer at 20.08 (#312 overall) by Denver Nuggets was arguably a better value. One could also make the case for Gavin Floyd at 17.15 (#271) by Buckner.
Free agent pick-ups that ended up being kept:
Ryan Doumit, March 08, Bobby Ayala
Ryan Dempster, March, Pervin
Ricky Nolasco, April, Buckner
Who had the best set of players that weren't kept?
-Just the Koufax has had all but 2 of his players drafted, only Miguel Montero and Brett Gardner are left.
-Lunatic Fringe has 4 remaining undrafted players, Triple B's has 5. Talk about depth!
Who had the worst set of players that weren't kept?
-Baseball Junkies unfortunately inherited the worst team in the league, formally Pervin the Dish, who still has 15 unkept players undrafted. That means only 5 former Pervies were drafted thusfar.
-Other notables: Sleeve of Wizard (formally Denver Nuggets) has 14, Killer B's & Austin Pucketteers (formally Chicago Serbs) have 13, and Bobby Ayala has 12 (7 are SP.)
The most abundant position left of unkept players is RP, with 45. There are 29 SP left, and 25 OF.
There are 19 remaining unkept players that qualify at MI, and only 15 at CI.
There are 13 remaining unkept C
The highest draft pick from 2008 that wasn't kept? JJ Putz was taken #8 overall by Triple B's in 2008. Erik Bedard went #10 to Nuke Laloosh, and Aaron Harang went #14 to Serbs.
The best draft value of 2008? Ryan Doumit was the latest player drafted that ended up being kept, at 19.12 (#300 overall) by Rusty Trombones. Unfortunately he dropped Doumit before the season began and Bobby Ayala picked him up. Justin Duchsherer at 20.08 (#312 overall) by Denver Nuggets was arguably a better value. One could also make the case for Gavin Floyd at 17.15 (#271) by Buckner.
Free agent pick-ups that ended up being kept:
Ryan Doumit, March 08, Bobby Ayala
Ryan Dempster, March, Pervin
Ricky Nolasco, April, Buckner
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