Best and Worst picks, rounds 1-5

As a number cruncher and amateur day-trader in stocks (with limited gains and few losses,) I appreciate value analysis. With this in mind I’m breaking down the standout picks, for better or worse, in each round.

Fellow Sandlotters, please don’t take this personally, criticism of a pick is not an attack on your character, just my opinion and therefore very fallible. Please feel free to debate my observations…

Round 1
Best
-Max Scherzer 1.02 (#2 overall) Bobby Ayala. More than any other player in the draft, Scherzer should’ve been kept (Koufax kept 3 RP instead, Soria, Wood, and Marmol.) He could be the next Lincecum, K/9 somewhere around 10, low 3’s ERA, and with an increase to 12 keepers next year the potential value is off the scale.
(Honorable Mention: Ryan Theriot 1.12, #12, Bobby Ayala. See the previous post “Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala.”)

Worst
-Jeff Francoeur 1.08 (#8 overall) Tijuana Mammas. Was the 3rd OF taken in the draft, despite coming off an Andruw Jones-type season of career lows in R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, & OBP. Wait, that’s every fantasy stat in our league. (My bad, his OBP was 0.01 lower in 2006.) He had fewer HR (11) in 599 AB than he did in 2005 (14) when he only had 257 AB. At least his K rate improved to a balmy 1/5.396 AB.
(Honorable Mention: Mariano Rivera 1.06, #6, Sleeve of Wizard. $15 mil for a 39-yr-old closer.)


Round 2
Best
-No stand out picks this round, 4 closers taken out of necessity, solid veterans like Dye, Burrell and Lilly, but some young guys like Denard Span and John Maine might pay off huge.

Worst
-Todd Wellemeyer 2.16 (#32 overall) Keyser Soze. A 30-yr-old journeyman who put together a decent year in his first full season as a starter, he looks more like a product of LaRussa/Duncan magic than a legitimate ace-in-the-making. In 2008 he averaged under 6IP per outing with unimpressive K/9 and K/BB ratios, and declined in the 2nd half. Ubaldo Jimenez, Jesse Litsch, Chris Volstad, and Jonathan Sanchez were the next 4 SP taken, all of whom are younger, have more upside, and arguably looked better last year than Wellemeyer ever has.


Round 3
Best
-Mark DeRosa, 3.13 (#45 overall) Carl Spackler. The last 2B in his tier, the last 2B you could probably lock in at 100 R, 20HR, and 90 RBI, oh and he qualifies at 3B and OF too. Should see an increase in AB (505 last year,) could bat 2nd behind Sizemore in front of VMart and Pronk. Immediately after Spackler took him, half the league let him know DeRosa was next on their queue.
(Honorable Mention: The aforementioned 4 SP, Jimenez, Litsch, Volstad, Sanchez, the class of young SP still available in the draft.)

Worst
-Dallas McPherson, 3.09 (#41) Austin Pucketteers. Yeah, I know the guy hit 1000 HR in AAA last year, but his career #s against big-league pitching show him to be a .250 hitter who never walks and Ks once every 3 AB. He’ll also be competing with Wes Helms for playing time, and possibly Jorge Cantu if Gaby Sanchez or Logan Morrison immerge this year. McPherson gets my vote for the Most-Likely-to-be-Traded-for-Random-Average-Relief-Pitcher Award.
(Honorable Mentions: Carlos Gonzalez, 3.16 (#48) Nellie’s Holler, who could’ve gone 4 rounds later, and Ian Stewart, 3.15 (#47) Rusty Trombones, who I’m guessing was drafted to fill a MI role. Let’s hope he actually does get that starting 2B job over Jeff Baker and Clint Barmes so he can pick up 2B eligibility as quickly as possible, especially after what Rusty traded for him.)


Round 4
Best
- In the 4th round, Nuke Laloosh added Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard, Jason Bartlett, Jack Cust, and Johnny Damon, 2 power guys, a speed guy, a SP primed for a top-tier comeback he later traded for CC Sabathia, and Damon, 4.14 (#62,) the last legitimate 6-tool OF left. Damon became the 23rd player on Nuke’s roster with a salary over $10 mil. Stop trading him cash, people.

Worst
-Adam Lind, 4.06, (#54) Lunatic Fringe. Sorry Commish, and sorry Keyser, who had him all last year and went on record that he wanted to keep him (and almost did over Ian Kinsler.) Lind is a mediocre 4th OF (Wells, Rios, and Snider will get the bulk of the AB,) who has proven he can hit for AVG in the minors, and that’s about it. 77 HR & 10 SB in 2257 career professional AB is not exactly going to hurt your team, but for a 4th round pick it’s not helping much either.
(Honorable Mentions: Placido Polanco and Mike Fontenot, two 2B taken way too early.)


Round 5
Best
-Jim Thome, 5.10 (#74) Keyser Soze. Sure he’ll turn 39 this season, but he’s hit at least 30 HR & 85 RBI in 11 of the last 12 seasons, and he was the best power option left. He’s probably got one more season left of that kind of production, and guys like him can make the difference between 1st and 2nd.
(Honorable Mention: Joey Devine, 5.07, #71, Killer B’s. If he gets all the save opportunities, and that’s a big if with Ziegler, Casilla, and Springer there, he could be one of the best closers in the game.)

Worst
-Hank Blalock, 5.14 (#78) Triple B’s. A career of underachieving and injuries; the Rangers begging gold-glove SS Michael Young to take over at 3B in a crowded infield; no apparent suitors asking about him; all this shapes up to be a season of uncertainty for an inconsistent slugger taken 2 rounds before Mike Lowell and Casey Blake.
(Honorable Mentions: JJ Putz, 5.13, #77, Carl Spackler, taken 34 spots before the next set-up guy. He’s good, but how about Ziegler or Balfour going in round 8? John Smoltz, 5.16, #80, Nellie’s Holler, because he’ll be out until July and maybe not 100% until August. Justin Duchsherer 2 picks later looks a lot better.)