...Don't Believe the Hype. At least, don't always believe it.
Already, my eyes must be deceiving me as two of the game's young-and-promising third basemen are being drafted in the first six rounds of a standard 10-team 5x5 league on both ESPN and Yahoo!. Evan Longoria (one letter away from another over-hyped Longoria in American culture) and Chris Davis (lame name, but I still love this guy) enter 2009 as the darlings of fantasy 3B options for those who just don't have the patience to hear why Adrian Beltre is so underrated or why Mark Reynolds should go at least five rounds earlier. But do we really need to see these guys that high up the proverbial ladder? Let's focus on Evan Longoria and talk about 3Bs and name recognition for a moment.
Did you know that 20 (!) 3B-eligible players hit 20 or more home runs last year?
(A. Rodriguez, D. Wright, R. Braun, M. Cabrera, E. Longoria, A. Beltre, M. Reynolds, G. Atkins, Ar. Ramirez, C. Jones, M. Mora, T. Wigginton, A. Huff, K. Youkilis, J. Cantu, M. DeRosa, C. Blake, K. Kouzmanoff, T. Glaus, E. Encarnacion.)
Of those, 13 hit at least 25 with five breaking the 30-homer plateau (Rodriguez, Wright, Braun, Cabrera, Huff). It's safe to say drafting power at third base is very, very easy. Let's take this a step further.
Evan Longoria hit 67/27/85/7/.272 in 448 at-bats last year. Projecting that over a full 162-game season, Longoria might have cracked 30 with 95-100 RBI. He's currently being drafted in the third round of standard 10-team drafts on ESPN. Now, this is where it gets interesting.
Aramis Ramirez, in a steady statistical decline, hit 27 home runs but walked away with 111 runs batted in -- one of only six third basemen to break 100 in 2008 -- with 97 runs and a .289 average. Among still-eligible third basemen, those numbers are good for fourth and fifth respectively (the latter considering a 500-at-bat minimum). Currently, Aramis Ramirez is being drafted in the fourth or fifth round in standard 10-team 5x5 leagues. Why?
On the other hand, Troy Glaus went 69/27/99/0/.270 in 544 at-bats and looks like draft fodder right now thanks to another injury. By the way, Glaus just decided to shut down all baseball-related activity to let his shoulder catch up on the healing process. So long, April. Hello late May/early June. Good to see you again.
Beyond power numbers, speed and average come into play, just as I hinted above. As far as speed numbers go, only one man cracked 20 this year, and he didn't even get 500 at-bats. Yup, Chone Figgins swiped 34 bags in 2008 in spite of what seemed like 4,267 injuries. The next-best total is Alex Rodriguez's 18. Beyond those two, only three guys (including Braun) cracked double-digit swipes and 12 more finished in the five-to-nine range. Longoria swiped seven bags, which projects to between nine and twelve bags over a full season. According to the 2008 rubric, this would place him fourth or fifth among third basemen.
Side Note: Arizona's Mark Reynolds swiped 11 bags, hit 28 home runs, and scored 87 runs with 97 runs batted in but only hit .239. Now, think back to all the advice the fantasy analysts on the high-profile ESPN, Yahoo!, and CBS have doled out. Remeber when they advised you to draft high-average guys to cancel out the liabilities there in the later rounds of the draft? Meet Mark Reynolds. Excluding his paltry clip, Reynolds was excellent at the hot corner: eighth in runs, sixth in home runs, ninth in runs batted in, and fourth in stolen bases. The reason you draft an Ichiro Suzuki is so you can giggle in rounds 16 to 19 and pick Mark Reynolds, knowing full-well that you've found fantasy gold that late in the draft. Just sayin'.
But I digress. Beyond power and speed, there's the average issue. Considering all the options at third with 400 or more at-bats last season (bear with me here), Longoria's .272 was good for 17th. Yup. It's strange when you stack up all the numbers and compare side-by-side, isn't it? I'm not saying Evan Longoria won't inevitably turn out to be a top-round pick. His upside in a potent and, most importantly, young Tampa Bay lineup leads me to believe he'll be there by 2010 for sure. Also consider that BJ Upton's shoulder gave him fits most of the year, Carl Crawford sat on the DL again, and Carlos Pena saw a significant DL stint. Those three guys fully healthy could certainly put Longoria's numbers over the top before long. Unfortunately, the same can be said about other lineups and their respective talents with their respective upside plays.
All I'm saying is that Evan Longoria's name might be carrying him to a level beyond what his stats are actually worth. Sure some guys can regress, and some guys just don't qualify at third anymore (Cabrera, you super-talented fatty, you). This year, I don't see more than 12 third basemen cracking 20 home runs. But does that further justify Longoria's over-hyped self in the third round, before the likes of Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre? In one-year leagues, absolutely not. And therein lies the dilemma.
It's an epidemic. Fantasy baseball is no longer turning into a once-in-a-while hobby for some. It's becoming a mathematical obsession for many -- something that carries over from one season to the next. As such, when keeper and dynasty leagues come into effect, there are too many who bring the keeper-league mentality into a one-year draft and crash and burn. Join a one-year league with me and draft Matt Wieters ahead of Bengie Molina. I will laugh at you every single time when I draft a Raul Ibanez in the eleventh round instead (that's a whole other rant in and of itself) and wait seven to nine rounds for B-Mo (I just made that name up right now; I've never called him that nor will I ever again).
This new "Major League Investment" mentality brought to the fantasy baseball table isn't a bad thing, necessarily. Hell, I believe fantasy baseball is the future of the sport and a virtual savior (like that pun? I didn't) amid a troubling economy. I don't think I'm alone in this, either:
http://www.ibm.com/podcasts/future/FutureOf_Baseball_transcript.pdf .
In case you don't know why I referenced that article, it's simple. Fantasy baseball is baseball reduced to its most basic, mathematical form. Baseball = data in fantasy, and we are essentially going through a very shallow process of quantifying and qualifying stats that most GMs and ball club staff members use to scout, draft, sign, and acquire/trade players. You don't have to be a math major to figure out 28 is more than 27, but you have to have the necessary research skills to understand why 28 < 27 in some ways -- i.e. why Mark Reynolds is so much less valuable in fantasy than Evan Longoria.
Unfortunately -- and more to the point of this article -- I can't tell you why that is when average is the only issue. In standard 5x5 leagues, I can skip Longoria in the third, draft Matt Holliday, and wait 14 rounds or more for Mark Reynolds. I don't see a problem in that whatsoever. I will always draft the numbers before I draft the name.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
20 Questions with the Sandlot champ
Chris Thompson, AKA the motherfucking peanutbutter king of Chicago, took his team 'Nellie's Holler' all the way last year and won our precious Sandlot. I met up with Chris in a dirty alley behind a dumpster to shoot heroin, and talk fantasy baseball.
1. How long have you been playing fantasy baseball?
I've only been playing for about 5 years. It brought me back to baseball after a long drought caused by the strike in '94. I sold all my cards and moved on. I'm very glad FBB brought me back.
2. Where does winning the Sandlot rank among your personal fantasy glory?
I'd say right behind winning 1st prize in a money league a few years back. This league is definitely more competitive, but it's hard to beat winning 600 bucks from your friends. Especially when it appeases a FBB hating wife by buying dinner & a trip to the movies for the fam.
3. How many leagues did you play in last year, and how many in 2009?
Last year was only 3 leagues. This year I'm back at 3, but I'm willing to join 1 or 2 more. I'd love to play more, but I hate having to root for/against my own players because of what they'll do for/against me in different leagues. That takes the fun out of it for me.
4. You won our league by a pretty wide margin (23 points), do you remember at what point in the year you knew you had it locked up?
I'd say after the Vlad/Burnett for Volquez trade, I thought I was going to lock it down. I didn't consider myself safe until Price came up though because I remember thinking it wasn't even necessary to put him on my roster. I don't think Nuke or Buckner really went for it in the end though. They started looking towards next year.
5. You started this dynasty with the Rays. You got a lot of production from Longoria, Upton, Pena, Crawford, Iwamura, Garza, Percival, and Shields, although Pena and Crawford had somewhat disappointing seasons. How much of your success do you attribute to the Rays doing well, and how much was Chris Thompson GM savvy?
Of course I attribute some of my success to the Rays, but the Rays hitting wasn't very good (pretty much middle of the pack amongst mlb teams last year). Upton, Crawford, and Pena all took steps backwards so Longoria's success was a huge relief. I think the low costs of all of the Rays players had more to do with my success than their play. That allowed me to draft some high risk expensive players that turned out pretty decent such as Glaus as well as trade for high salary players like Abreu, Rivera and Santana, and then pick up a Brian Giles without having to worry about the cost. I took the team I was given and made the best of it so you can say it was a good mix.
6. You had the 14th (out of 16) pick in the franchise draft, were you hoping to get the Rays? Do you remember wanting someone else?
Hell No, I didn't want the Rays at first. I knew their MiLB system was good, but I honestly couldn't tell you how good since before last year I didn't know much of anything about MiLB players. I remember telling someone to draft the Angels if Pervin picked while I wasn't around. Worked out nice though, Pervin's gone and I won.
7. After the draft was done, where did you see Nellie's Holler finishing in the standings in 2008?
I saw my team doing well, but not winning. I knew I'd be top 3 in most pitching categories, but lacking in some of the batting cats. I thought I had enough speed on my team to be top 2 and while HR's, RBI's, and AVG were going to be on the low end, I thought I would be top 6 in runs with a decent OBP. I've won a H2H league before with SB's, Runs, AVG and good pitching, which is against the usual trend, so why not try that different strategy here since that's where my original team strengths were? I felt I took what everyone else seemingly undervalued, and made it my strength. Another example of taking what your team gives you and making the best out of it. I wouldn't have won in the end if I didn't trade for batting though, so it's not like it was an end all strategy.
8. You bucked the overwhelming trend of this league by trading several younger, cheaper players like BJ Upton, Scott Kazmir, Edinson Volquez, Matt Garza, and Adam Jones for more veteran and expensive players like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Derek Jeter, AJ Burnett, and Vlad Guerrero last year. Was this by design to ensure more immediate results, or deals that were just too good to pass up, or both?
Upton for Pujols. Kaz for J. Santana. Volquez for Vlad, Burnett, and Buchholz (who I coveted anyways). These are all trades I didn't feel I could pass on. The Garza/Jones/MiLB pick for Jeter/Bedard was the trade I felt I needed to make for immediate results. Furcal wasn't getting healthy so SS was a big black hole for me. I was trying to make a run at winning, and it was a trade I felt I needed to make to win. Jeter hit .345/.342 in Aug/Sept so it worked out for me. I don't think I "won" that trade, but it certainly did help my team out.
9. Staying with veterans, you got significant contributions from several older players like Bobby Abreu, Troy Glaus, Jason Bartlett, Brian Giles, and the players mentioned in the previous question. Is this a strategy you generally lean towards, or was it just a product of best available with such a deep league?
Best available. Abreu, Giles, and Glaus were products of having a low payroll in a deep league where people weren't willing to spend on the older, more expensive players. Abreu is a rock that can help you build a team with, and I think he's generally undervalued. Bartlett though? Really?
10. What were your expectations for Evan Longoria before last season started?
I tried not to have very high expectations for him. After the year of Gordon/Braun, you just don't know what you're going to get.
11. Were you hoping for more from Rick Ankiel last year? He produced pretty well for the round (7), but after the way he finished '07 were expectations (many experts boldly predicted .300/30/100) too high for him?
I was hoping for power out of him, which is something I sorely needed. I knew his avg/obp was going to be low though. Him & Cust were a virtual wash for me, and I think Cust went right around the same time.
12. Felix Hernandez was your first ever pick in this league, assuming you drafted him to be the anchor of your dynasty, what are your expectations for his career?
I think he'll continue to progress and be a top pitcher for years. You just don't see a groundball inducing pitcher accumulate a lot of strikeouts very often. He's still only 23 and learning a lot. I think the Mariners have not been abusive of him either. Add all this up, and he has a lot of promise.
13. Is it safe to say Pat Neshek in the 5th round in 2008 didn't work out the way you hoped?
Neshek was a bomb. At the time, there was a lot of talk about Nathan getting traded and Neshek taking over if that happened. He had good stats the year before, and I figured at least I was going to get a cheap, top set-up man with a chance to close. I changed my drafting strategy this year partly because of him.
14. How big was drafting Edinson Volquez in the 8th round? He got you 13 wins, 130+ K's and a nice 2.47/1.27 line, then he became Vlad Guerrero, AJ Burnett, and Clay Buchholz at the deadline.
Volquez was amazing. I already thought I had a great pitching staff, and Volquez made it the best in the league along with landing 3 excellent players (2 of which I kept, and the other going in the 1st round this year). I was thinking about him a couple rounds before I took him just salivating over those K/9 he put up in the minors without thinking he would come close to doing what he did. If you can say that one player made a whole team work, it was Volquez for me. Unfortunately, I can't see any of the players I currently have getting me that kind of value.
15. Looking ahead to this year, where does Nellie's Holler finish? Back to back championships?
Ooooh, I hope so. I think I have a solid team, but there's always a lot of ?'s, and I think the teams have gotten tighter. I'd have to say winning in the first year of a league like this is good, but doesn't show greatness. If anything, it's the easiest year to luck out on considering as time goes on, each team's MiLB drafting and ability to consider all the variables will show if the FBB manager really knows how to play in a league like this.
16. Josh's 'Nuke Laloosh Express' was your biggest competition last year, and his team looks very strong again. Is he the team you're most worried about? Do you expect the league to be more competitive this year?
I consider my team top 4 right now. I alread said that the Bones have the best keepers to build around, and I stand by that. Spackler's built quite a team, Nuke's very strong if not stronger than last year, and you never know which team has a different strategy that we just don't see yet. I think it will be more competitive, and it was a lot more competitive than the final standings showed last year. Coming up to the deadline, there were a lot of teams buying/selling to shore up their keepers or place in the standings which really skewed the final score.
17. You have 2 pitchers on your team that were both late picks coming off very disappointing seasons, that could both turn out to be steals. What are you hoping to get from Ian Snell and Rich Hill?
I kind of expect Snell to bounce back to respectability. Hill is a long shot, especially in that division. I really didn't need another SP, but couldn't help take a chance on him. If he turns out, then I have trade bait on my starting staff. I seem to have a lot of those kind of SP's that if you add them together will give well above average production. We'll see if that strategy works out.
18. You have 2 young players on your offense that should see a jump in playing time, what are you hoping to get from Jeff Clement and Carlos Gonzalez?
Pretty sure Gonzalez will go down to AAA to start the season. A natural player like him in Coors though? Should be money down the road. Clement on the other hand, I'm counting on to be more productive. 20 HR's from the C position would be huge in comparison to what I got from that position last year. The man was a monster in the minors, hopefully some of that will translate. Clement is the opposite of Gonzalez though IMO, since his viability at the C position down the road is very slim, and that is what makes him valuable.
19. Assuming both pitchers are still on your team next year, who has the better 2010, Johan Santana or David Price?
Santana. Price needs a 3rd pitch in a bad way. He'll burn his arm up on FB's & sliders and become predictable if he doesn't get a good changeup down.
20. When your Cubs choke this fall, who will be to blame?
Who wins in this trade, Liriano/Nathan for Pierzynski? The GM, you always blame the GM for not making that perfect deal.....or the Goat. Depends if you're sober or not.
One good jab deserves another. Touche my friend, and good luck this year.
1. How long have you been playing fantasy baseball?
I've only been playing for about 5 years. It brought me back to baseball after a long drought caused by the strike in '94. I sold all my cards and moved on. I'm very glad FBB brought me back.
2. Where does winning the Sandlot rank among your personal fantasy glory?
I'd say right behind winning 1st prize in a money league a few years back. This league is definitely more competitive, but it's hard to beat winning 600 bucks from your friends. Especially when it appeases a FBB hating wife by buying dinner & a trip to the movies for the fam.
3. How many leagues did you play in last year, and how many in 2009?
Last year was only 3 leagues. This year I'm back at 3, but I'm willing to join 1 or 2 more. I'd love to play more, but I hate having to root for/against my own players because of what they'll do for/against me in different leagues. That takes the fun out of it for me.
4. You won our league by a pretty wide margin (23 points), do you remember at what point in the year you knew you had it locked up?
I'd say after the Vlad/Burnett for Volquez trade, I thought I was going to lock it down. I didn't consider myself safe until Price came up though because I remember thinking it wasn't even necessary to put him on my roster. I don't think Nuke or Buckner really went for it in the end though. They started looking towards next year.
5. You started this dynasty with the Rays. You got a lot of production from Longoria, Upton, Pena, Crawford, Iwamura, Garza, Percival, and Shields, although Pena and Crawford had somewhat disappointing seasons. How much of your success do you attribute to the Rays doing well, and how much was Chris Thompson GM savvy?
Of course I attribute some of my success to the Rays, but the Rays hitting wasn't very good (pretty much middle of the pack amongst mlb teams last year). Upton, Crawford, and Pena all took steps backwards so Longoria's success was a huge relief. I think the low costs of all of the Rays players had more to do with my success than their play. That allowed me to draft some high risk expensive players that turned out pretty decent such as Glaus as well as trade for high salary players like Abreu, Rivera and Santana, and then pick up a Brian Giles without having to worry about the cost. I took the team I was given and made the best of it so you can say it was a good mix.
6. You had the 14th (out of 16) pick in the franchise draft, were you hoping to get the Rays? Do you remember wanting someone else?
Hell No, I didn't want the Rays at first. I knew their MiLB system was good, but I honestly couldn't tell you how good since before last year I didn't know much of anything about MiLB players. I remember telling someone to draft the Angels if Pervin picked while I wasn't around. Worked out nice though, Pervin's gone and I won.
7. After the draft was done, where did you see Nellie's Holler finishing in the standings in 2008?
I saw my team doing well, but not winning. I knew I'd be top 3 in most pitching categories, but lacking in some of the batting cats. I thought I had enough speed on my team to be top 2 and while HR's, RBI's, and AVG were going to be on the low end, I thought I would be top 6 in runs with a decent OBP. I've won a H2H league before with SB's, Runs, AVG and good pitching, which is against the usual trend, so why not try that different strategy here since that's where my original team strengths were? I felt I took what everyone else seemingly undervalued, and made it my strength. Another example of taking what your team gives you and making the best out of it. I wouldn't have won in the end if I didn't trade for batting though, so it's not like it was an end all strategy.
8. You bucked the overwhelming trend of this league by trading several younger, cheaper players like BJ Upton, Scott Kazmir, Edinson Volquez, Matt Garza, and Adam Jones for more veteran and expensive players like Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Derek Jeter, AJ Burnett, and Vlad Guerrero last year. Was this by design to ensure more immediate results, or deals that were just too good to pass up, or both?
Upton for Pujols. Kaz for J. Santana. Volquez for Vlad, Burnett, and Buchholz (who I coveted anyways). These are all trades I didn't feel I could pass on. The Garza/Jones/MiLB pick for Jeter/Bedard was the trade I felt I needed to make for immediate results. Furcal wasn't getting healthy so SS was a big black hole for me. I was trying to make a run at winning, and it was a trade I felt I needed to make to win. Jeter hit .345/.342 in Aug/Sept so it worked out for me. I don't think I "won" that trade, but it certainly did help my team out.
9. Staying with veterans, you got significant contributions from several older players like Bobby Abreu, Troy Glaus, Jason Bartlett, Brian Giles, and the players mentioned in the previous question. Is this a strategy you generally lean towards, or was it just a product of best available with such a deep league?
Best available. Abreu, Giles, and Glaus were products of having a low payroll in a deep league where people weren't willing to spend on the older, more expensive players. Abreu is a rock that can help you build a team with, and I think he's generally undervalued. Bartlett though? Really?
10. What were your expectations for Evan Longoria before last season started?
I tried not to have very high expectations for him. After the year of Gordon/Braun, you just don't know what you're going to get.
11. Were you hoping for more from Rick Ankiel last year? He produced pretty well for the round (7), but after the way he finished '07 were expectations (many experts boldly predicted .300/30/100) too high for him?
I was hoping for power out of him, which is something I sorely needed. I knew his avg/obp was going to be low though. Him & Cust were a virtual wash for me, and I think Cust went right around the same time.
12. Felix Hernandez was your first ever pick in this league, assuming you drafted him to be the anchor of your dynasty, what are your expectations for his career?
I think he'll continue to progress and be a top pitcher for years. You just don't see a groundball inducing pitcher accumulate a lot of strikeouts very often. He's still only 23 and learning a lot. I think the Mariners have not been abusive of him either. Add all this up, and he has a lot of promise.
13. Is it safe to say Pat Neshek in the 5th round in 2008 didn't work out the way you hoped?
Neshek was a bomb. At the time, there was a lot of talk about Nathan getting traded and Neshek taking over if that happened. He had good stats the year before, and I figured at least I was going to get a cheap, top set-up man with a chance to close. I changed my drafting strategy this year partly because of him.
14. How big was drafting Edinson Volquez in the 8th round? He got you 13 wins, 130+ K's and a nice 2.47/1.27 line, then he became Vlad Guerrero, AJ Burnett, and Clay Buchholz at the deadline.
Volquez was amazing. I already thought I had a great pitching staff, and Volquez made it the best in the league along with landing 3 excellent players (2 of which I kept, and the other going in the 1st round this year). I was thinking about him a couple rounds before I took him just salivating over those K/9 he put up in the minors without thinking he would come close to doing what he did. If you can say that one player made a whole team work, it was Volquez for me. Unfortunately, I can't see any of the players I currently have getting me that kind of value.
15. Looking ahead to this year, where does Nellie's Holler finish? Back to back championships?
Ooooh, I hope so. I think I have a solid team, but there's always a lot of ?'s, and I think the teams have gotten tighter. I'd have to say winning in the first year of a league like this is good, but doesn't show greatness. If anything, it's the easiest year to luck out on considering as time goes on, each team's MiLB drafting and ability to consider all the variables will show if the FBB manager really knows how to play in a league like this.
16. Josh's 'Nuke Laloosh Express' was your biggest competition last year, and his team looks very strong again. Is he the team you're most worried about? Do you expect the league to be more competitive this year?
I consider my team top 4 right now. I alread said that the Bones have the best keepers to build around, and I stand by that. Spackler's built quite a team, Nuke's very strong if not stronger than last year, and you never know which team has a different strategy that we just don't see yet. I think it will be more competitive, and it was a lot more competitive than the final standings showed last year. Coming up to the deadline, there were a lot of teams buying/selling to shore up their keepers or place in the standings which really skewed the final score.
17. You have 2 pitchers on your team that were both late picks coming off very disappointing seasons, that could both turn out to be steals. What are you hoping to get from Ian Snell and Rich Hill?
I kind of expect Snell to bounce back to respectability. Hill is a long shot, especially in that division. I really didn't need another SP, but couldn't help take a chance on him. If he turns out, then I have trade bait on my starting staff. I seem to have a lot of those kind of SP's that if you add them together will give well above average production. We'll see if that strategy works out.
18. You have 2 young players on your offense that should see a jump in playing time, what are you hoping to get from Jeff Clement and Carlos Gonzalez?
Pretty sure Gonzalez will go down to AAA to start the season. A natural player like him in Coors though? Should be money down the road. Clement on the other hand, I'm counting on to be more productive. 20 HR's from the C position would be huge in comparison to what I got from that position last year. The man was a monster in the minors, hopefully some of that will translate. Clement is the opposite of Gonzalez though IMO, since his viability at the C position down the road is very slim, and that is what makes him valuable.
19. Assuming both pitchers are still on your team next year, who has the better 2010, Johan Santana or David Price?
Santana. Price needs a 3rd pitch in a bad way. He'll burn his arm up on FB's & sliders and become predictable if he doesn't get a good changeup down.
20. When your Cubs choke this fall, who will be to blame?
Who wins in this trade, Liriano/Nathan for Pierzynski? The GM, you always blame the GM for not making that perfect deal.....or the Goat. Depends if you're sober or not.
One good jab deserves another. Touche my friend, and good luck this year.
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