Listen to Flava Flav

...Don't Believe the Hype. At least, don't always believe it.

Already, my eyes must be deceiving me as two of the game's young-and-promising third basemen are being drafted in the first six rounds of a standard 10-team 5x5 league on both ESPN and Yahoo!. Evan Longoria (one letter away from another over-hyped Longoria in American culture) and Chris Davis (lame name, but I still love this guy) enter 2009 as the darlings of fantasy 3B options for those who just don't have the patience to hear why Adrian Beltre is so underrated or why Mark Reynolds should go at least five rounds earlier. But do we really need to see these guys that high up the proverbial ladder? Let's focus on Evan Longoria and talk about 3Bs and name recognition for a moment.

Did you know that 20 (!) 3B-eligible players hit 20 or more home runs last year?

(A. Rodriguez, D. Wright, R. Braun, M. Cabrera, E. Longoria, A. Beltre, M. Reynolds, G. Atkins, Ar. Ramirez, C. Jones, M. Mora, T. Wigginton, A. Huff, K. Youkilis, J. Cantu, M. DeRosa, C. Blake, K. Kouzmanoff, T. Glaus, E. Encarnacion.)

Of those, 13 hit at least 25 with five breaking the 30-homer plateau (Rodriguez, Wright, Braun, Cabrera, Huff). It's safe to say drafting power at third base is very, very easy. Let's take this a step further.

Evan Longoria hit 67/27/85/7/.272 in 448 at-bats last year. Projecting that over a full 162-game season, Longoria might have cracked 30 with 95-100 RBI. He's currently being drafted in the third round of standard 10-team drafts on ESPN. Now, this is where it gets interesting.

Aramis Ramirez, in a steady statistical decline, hit 27 home runs but walked away with 111 runs batted in -- one of only six third basemen to break 100 in 2008 -- with 97 runs and a .289 average. Among still-eligible third basemen, those numbers are good for fourth and fifth respectively (the latter considering a 500-at-bat minimum). Currently, Aramis Ramirez is being drafted in the fourth or fifth round in standard 10-team 5x5 leagues. Why?

On the other hand, Troy Glaus went 69/27/99/0/.270 in 544 at-bats and looks like draft fodder right now thanks to another injury. By the way, Glaus just decided to shut down all baseball-related activity to let his shoulder catch up on the healing process. So long, April. Hello late May/early June. Good to see you again.

Beyond power numbers, speed and average come into play, just as I hinted above. As far as speed numbers go, only one man cracked 20 this year, and he didn't even get 500 at-bats. Yup, Chone Figgins swiped 34 bags in 2008 in spite of what seemed like 4,267 injuries. The next-best total is Alex Rodriguez's 18. Beyond those two, only three guys (including Braun) cracked double-digit swipes and 12 more finished in the five-to-nine range. Longoria swiped seven bags, which projects to between nine and twelve bags over a full season. According to the 2008 rubric, this would place him fourth or fifth among third basemen.

Side Note: Arizona's Mark Reynolds swiped 11 bags, hit 28 home runs, and scored 87 runs with 97 runs batted in but only hit .239. Now, think back to all the advice the fantasy analysts on the high-profile ESPN, Yahoo!, and CBS have doled out. Remeber when they advised you to draft high-average guys to cancel out the liabilities there in the later rounds of the draft? Meet Mark Reynolds. Excluding his paltry clip, Reynolds was excellent at the hot corner: eighth in runs, sixth in home runs, ninth in runs batted in, and fourth in stolen bases. The reason you draft an Ichiro Suzuki is so you can giggle in rounds 16 to 19 and pick Mark Reynolds, knowing full-well that you've found fantasy gold that late in the draft. Just sayin'.

But I digress. Beyond power and speed, there's the average issue. Considering all the options at third with 400 or more at-bats last season (bear with me here), Longoria's .272 was good for 17th. Yup. It's strange when you stack up all the numbers and compare side-by-side, isn't it? I'm not saying Evan Longoria won't inevitably turn out to be a top-round pick. His upside in a potent and, most importantly, young Tampa Bay lineup leads me to believe he'll be there by 2010 for sure. Also consider that BJ Upton's shoulder gave him fits most of the year, Carl Crawford sat on the DL again, and Carlos Pena saw a significant DL stint. Those three guys fully healthy could certainly put Longoria's numbers over the top before long. Unfortunately, the same can be said about other lineups and their respective talents with their respective upside plays.

All I'm saying is that Evan Longoria's name might be carrying him to a level beyond what his stats are actually worth. Sure some guys can regress, and some guys just don't qualify at third anymore (Cabrera, you super-talented fatty, you). This year, I don't see more than 12 third basemen cracking 20 home runs. But does that further justify Longoria's over-hyped self in the third round, before the likes of Aramis Ramirez and Adrian Beltre? In one-year leagues, absolutely not. And therein lies the dilemma.

It's an epidemic. Fantasy baseball is no longer turning into a once-in-a-while hobby for some. It's becoming a mathematical obsession for many -- something that carries over from one season to the next. As such, when keeper and dynasty leagues come into effect, there are too many who bring the keeper-league mentality into a one-year draft and crash and burn. Join a one-year league with me and draft Matt Wieters ahead of Bengie Molina. I will laugh at you every single time when I draft a Raul Ibanez in the eleventh round instead (that's a whole other rant in and of itself) and wait seven to nine rounds for B-Mo (I just made that name up right now; I've never called him that nor will I ever again).

This new "Major League Investment" mentality brought to the fantasy baseball table isn't a bad thing, necessarily. Hell, I believe fantasy baseball is the future of the sport and a virtual savior (like that pun? I didn't) amid a troubling economy. I don't think I'm alone in this, either:
http://www.ibm.com/podcasts/future/FutureOf_Baseball_transcript.pdf .

In case you don't know why I referenced that article, it's simple. Fantasy baseball is baseball reduced to its most basic, mathematical form. Baseball = data in fantasy, and we are essentially going through a very shallow process of quantifying and qualifying stats that most GMs and ball club staff members use to scout, draft, sign, and acquire/trade players. You don't have to be a math major to figure out 28 is more than 27, but you have to have the necessary research skills to understand why 28 < 27 in some ways -- i.e. why Mark Reynolds is so much less valuable in fantasy than Evan Longoria.

Unfortunately -- and more to the point of this article -- I can't tell you why that is when average is the only issue. In standard 5x5 leagues, I can skip Longoria in the third, draft Matt Holliday, and wait 14 rounds or more for Mark Reynolds. I don't see a problem in that whatsoever. I will always draft the numbers before I draft the name.