As promised, here is a brief rundown of the 2008 Winter Meetings and all league decisions and changes involved therein:
Agenda #1: MLB & MiLB Keepers
The number of MLB keepers allotted to each team will increase to 12 after the 2009 season (previous total was 10). The number of MiLB keepers allotted to each team will stay the same (eight).
Agenda #2: MiLB Draft; MiLB Eligibility Standards
The 2009 MiLB Draft will not be extended or increased (five rounds).
Any MiLB player not eligible for the previously held MiLB draft -- i.e. any player not signed by a professional team with no recorded stats prior to mid-season -- is ineligible for free-agent selection and/or keeper selection. Instead, the aforementioned player(s) will be held over until the next season's MiLB Draft.
Agenda #3: 2009 Salary Figures & Adjustments
The 2009 salary cap allotted to each owner will increase to $125MM (previous total was $110MM). The 2009 minimum player salary will increase to $390k (previous figure was $300k).
And again, The Sandlot League will continue to utilize Cot's Baseball Contracts for all salary figures via http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com.
Agenda #4: Draft-Pick Trading & 2010 Draft Order
Owners are limited to in-season trades involving draft picks for the following season (e.g., owners can trade or acquire picks for the 2010 draft during the 2009 season). No owner shall engage in trades involving draft picks two or more years into the future.
The 2010 Draft Order will reflect the inverse of the final 2009 League Standings.
(The previous order reflected an inverse among the top eight teams and a randomly selected order among the bottom eight -- a measure taken to prevent tanking).
Monday, January 26, 2009
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Draft-Pick Trade Observation(s): Bobby Ayala
Many of the Sandlot Blog faithful will have familiarized themselves with the ins and outs of The Sandlot's league settings, but just to be safe, let me give a brief overview: 16 teams; 10 MLB keepers; eight MiLB keepers per team -- at least for the time being. Those numbers might change in our annual Sandlot Winter Meetings. (EDIT: Complete Winter Meetings slate will appear in Monday post.)
Presumably, at least on the big-league level, this implies 90 to 95% of the top-160 projected draftees will already be unavailable. As such, the first round of the ongoing 2009 draft would likely resemble a 17th-round crop in a typical 10-team ESPN or Yahoo! league. This sometimes isn't the case in Sandlot as salary figures, age, career years and upside all factor into keeper selections.
The following selections were made in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft:
1. Keyser Soze's Major League Minions -- JJ Hardy, SS Brewers, $2.65 MM
2. Bobby Ayala -- Max Scherzer, SP Diamondbacks, $1.075 MM
3. Rusty Trombones -- Johnny Cueto, SP Reds, $390k
4. Just the Koufax, Ma'am -- Jorge Cantu, 3B Marlins, $500k
5. The Baseball Junkies -- Andre Ethier, OF Dodgers, $424.5k
6. Sleeve of Wizard -- Mariano Rivera, RP Yankees, $15 MM
7. Killer B's -- Bobby Abreu, OF Free Agent, $16 MM
8. Tijuana Mamas -- Jeff Francoeur, OF Braves, $460k
9. Austin Puckettiers -- Raul Ibanez, OF Phillies, $5.5 MM
10. The Jimi Hendry Experience -- Milton Bradley, OF Cubs, $5 MM
11. Lunatic Fringe -- A.J. Burnett, SP Yankees, $12 MM
12. Bobby Ayala -- Ryan Theriot, SS Cubs, $428k
13. Bobby Ayala -- Brian Fuentes, RP Angels, $5.05 MM
14. Blue Balls Busters -- Jhonny Peralta, SS/[3B] Indians, $2.25 MM
15. Nuke LaLoosh Express -- Javier Vazquez, SP Braves, $11.5 MM
16. Nellie's Holler -- Matt Capps, RP Pirates, $500k
Right away, some might find aberrations in the aforementioned assumption of 16.x value found in the first round of this draft -- most noticeably, Rivera, Abreu, Ibanez, Bradley, Burnett, Theriot, and Vazquez all went in this round along with a few mid-tier closer options like Fuentes and Capps.
These selections immediately indicate two significant factors in this league: age and salary. As a former Vazquez owner myself, acquiring him and the dreadful shell of a 3B once known as Chone Figgins in exchange for a future pick, Chipper Jones (let the berating begin), and Brad Penny, I did not feel the hefty ERA and WHIP rates Vazquez brought to the table were justified by his K/9 rate and W-L record. As such, his $11.5 MM salary didn't seem to fit in spite of an intriguing move to Atlanta for 2009 and beyond. But I digress.
Another interesting factor in this first round is seeing Bobby Ayala with three picks while other owners -- Carl Spackler and The House That Buckner Built -- made no selections. Ah, the bittersweet smell of draft-pick trades. Let's dig deeper into this situation and find out if it was really worth the trouble of acquiring two additional first-round picks.
Let me preface the rest of this article with the following statement: I do not mind trades involving draft picks, though I am generally against them for the sake of a few nerdy acronyms: ADP (average draft position), PRK (position ranking), BAO (best available option), and VORP (value over replacement player). Let me also preface the following brief analysis by saying that I am not picking on Bobby Ayala. He's merely an example for the sake of flushing out my point.
On July 25, 2008, Bobby and Buckner completed this trade (don't ask me why):
Bobby Ayala sends: $10 MM (salary coverage), Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, C.J. Wilson, J.C. Romero, Scott Linebrink, and his 16th- and 18th-round draft picks, which we have yet to see.
Buckner sends: his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick and his 1st- and 6th-round MLB picks, which became Theriot and presumed Rockies closer Huston Street -- totaling $3.728 MM out of the allotted $125 MM this season.
Back on February 23, 2008, Bobby and Carl Spackler completed this trade:
Bobby Ayala sends his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick (#31 overall).
Carl Spackler sends his 1st-round MLB draft pick, which became Fuentes ($5.05 MM).
Essentially, as Bobby Ayala had previously admitted he was building for the future from the start of '08, he basically traded his 16th- and 18th-round MLB and 2nd-round MiLB draft picks for the opportunity to draft Theriot, Fuentes, and Street respectively ($8.778 MM in combined salary figures). Sure, Bobby finished in 10th place in 2008 while Spackler and Buckner finished 4th and 5th; but his build-for-2009 strategy has already paid off. Why?
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim introduced a whopping 87 save opportunities to its bullpen last season. Francisco Rodriguez managed to break the MLB record and convert 62 of 69 save opportunities. Scot Shields converted four of nine (hey, somebody had to give that guy a break). Colorado's Rockies yielded 59 opportunities while only managing to convert 36 as a team (Fuentes: 30/34). This can only mean one thing: Fuentes, coming off of a hot second-half 2008 performance, looks to be a solid replacement to K-Rod in Los Angeles. A low-3 ERA with 40+ save conversions seems very likely. Huston Street, on the other hand, moves to a shaky Colorado pitching staff and now must battle with determined RP Manny Corpas to reclaim his place as closer. Street's the wild card in this trio.
Ryan Theriot is easily the strongest selection of the three. Among his fellow shortstops with more than 100 AB in 2008 -- lenient, I know -- Theriot finished 9th in AB (580) and R (85); 8th in H (178); T-5 in 3B (4); 13th in TB (208); 2nd in BB (73); 5th in SB (22); 4th in OBP (.387); and 4th in AVG (.307). Theriot cemented himself as a top-10 shortstop option and, arguably, a top-5 option in The Sandlot given his contract and MLB experience -- 2008 was only his second full season with the Cubs.
I understand that's a whole lot of stats thrown together all at once. Let's look at it another way. Here's a list of shortstops kept by Sandlot owners prior to the 2009 MLB Draft: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Orlando Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Michael Young (now a 3B), Alexei Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, and prospects Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.
With this list of keeper-tagged shortstops, Ryan Theriot arguably becomes the BAO at shortstop in spite of the presence of oft-injured Rafael Furcal and aging Miguel Tejada in the 2009 MLB Draft. Committing $428k to a top-10 shortstop in his late-20s stands out like no other pick in the first round. Bobby Ayala, for my money (and not much of his own), not only made the best 1st-round pick of any team in the league but also made his previous 2008 transactions pay off in serious dividends.
Understand that this scenario is not the norm when dealing draft picks. Transactions involving draft picks are generally a toss-up and can go in either direction for anyone. Many factors can change one's fortune -- including keeper retention as we just saw in this example -- and work either for or against him.
Caveat emptor when dealing current or future draft picks; or, perhaps, caveat Bobby Ayala. You may get smoked just as Carl Spackler and Buckner did in this one.
Presumably, at least on the big-league level, this implies 90 to 95% of the top-160 projected draftees will already be unavailable. As such, the first round of the ongoing 2009 draft would likely resemble a 17th-round crop in a typical 10-team ESPN or Yahoo! league. This sometimes isn't the case in Sandlot as salary figures, age, career years and upside all factor into keeper selections.
The following selections were made in the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft:
1. Keyser Soze's Major League Minions -- JJ Hardy, SS Brewers, $2.65 MM
2. Bobby Ayala -- Max Scherzer, SP Diamondbacks, $1.075 MM
3. Rusty Trombones -- Johnny Cueto, SP Reds, $390k
4. Just the Koufax, Ma'am -- Jorge Cantu, 3B Marlins, $500k
5. The Baseball Junkies -- Andre Ethier, OF Dodgers, $424.5k
6. Sleeve of Wizard -- Mariano Rivera, RP Yankees, $15 MM
7. Killer B's -- Bobby Abreu, OF Free Agent, $16 MM
8. Tijuana Mamas -- Jeff Francoeur, OF Braves, $460k
9. Austin Puckettiers -- Raul Ibanez, OF Phillies, $5.5 MM
10. The Jimi Hendry Experience -- Milton Bradley, OF Cubs, $5 MM
11. Lunatic Fringe -- A.J. Burnett, SP Yankees, $12 MM
12. Bobby Ayala -- Ryan Theriot, SS Cubs, $428k
13. Bobby Ayala -- Brian Fuentes, RP Angels, $5.05 MM
14. Blue Balls Busters -- Jhonny Peralta, SS/[3B] Indians, $2.25 MM
15. Nuke LaLoosh Express -- Javier Vazquez, SP Braves, $11.5 MM
16. Nellie's Holler -- Matt Capps, RP Pirates, $500k
Right away, some might find aberrations in the aforementioned assumption of 16.x value found in the first round of this draft -- most noticeably, Rivera, Abreu, Ibanez, Bradley, Burnett, Theriot, and Vazquez all went in this round along with a few mid-tier closer options like Fuentes and Capps.
These selections immediately indicate two significant factors in this league: age and salary. As a former Vazquez owner myself, acquiring him and the dreadful shell of a 3B once known as Chone Figgins in exchange for a future pick, Chipper Jones (let the berating begin), and Brad Penny, I did not feel the hefty ERA and WHIP rates Vazquez brought to the table were justified by his K/9 rate and W-L record. As such, his $11.5 MM salary didn't seem to fit in spite of an intriguing move to Atlanta for 2009 and beyond. But I digress.
Another interesting factor in this first round is seeing Bobby Ayala with three picks while other owners -- Carl Spackler and The House That Buckner Built -- made no selections. Ah, the bittersweet smell of draft-pick trades. Let's dig deeper into this situation and find out if it was really worth the trouble of acquiring two additional first-round picks.
Let me preface the rest of this article with the following statement: I do not mind trades involving draft picks, though I am generally against them for the sake of a few nerdy acronyms: ADP (average draft position), PRK (position ranking), BAO (best available option), and VORP (value over replacement player). Let me also preface the following brief analysis by saying that I am not picking on Bobby Ayala. He's merely an example for the sake of flushing out my point.
On July 25, 2008, Bobby and Buckner completed this trade (don't ask me why):
Bobby Ayala sends: $10 MM (salary coverage), Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, C.J. Wilson, J.C. Romero, Scott Linebrink, and his 16th- and 18th-round draft picks, which we have yet to see.
Buckner sends: his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick and his 1st- and 6th-round MLB picks, which became Theriot and presumed Rockies closer Huston Street -- totaling $3.728 MM out of the allotted $125 MM this season.
Back on February 23, 2008, Bobby and Carl Spackler completed this trade:
Bobby Ayala sends his 2nd-round MiLB draft pick (#31 overall).
Carl Spackler sends his 1st-round MLB draft pick, which became Fuentes ($5.05 MM).
Essentially, as Bobby Ayala had previously admitted he was building for the future from the start of '08, he basically traded his 16th- and 18th-round MLB and 2nd-round MiLB draft picks for the opportunity to draft Theriot, Fuentes, and Street respectively ($8.778 MM in combined salary figures). Sure, Bobby finished in 10th place in 2008 while Spackler and Buckner finished 4th and 5th; but his build-for-2009 strategy has already paid off. Why?
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim introduced a whopping 87 save opportunities to its bullpen last season. Francisco Rodriguez managed to break the MLB record and convert 62 of 69 save opportunities. Scot Shields converted four of nine (hey, somebody had to give that guy a break). Colorado's Rockies yielded 59 opportunities while only managing to convert 36 as a team (Fuentes: 30/34). This can only mean one thing: Fuentes, coming off of a hot second-half 2008 performance, looks to be a solid replacement to K-Rod in Los Angeles. A low-3 ERA with 40+ save conversions seems very likely. Huston Street, on the other hand, moves to a shaky Colorado pitching staff and now must battle with determined RP Manny Corpas to reclaim his place as closer. Street's the wild card in this trio.
Ryan Theriot is easily the strongest selection of the three. Among his fellow shortstops with more than 100 AB in 2008 -- lenient, I know -- Theriot finished 9th in AB (580) and R (85); 8th in H (178); T-5 in 3B (4); 13th in TB (208); 2nd in BB (73); 5th in SB (22); 4th in OBP (.387); and 4th in AVG (.307). Theriot cemented himself as a top-10 shortstop option and, arguably, a top-5 option in The Sandlot given his contract and MLB experience -- 2008 was only his second full season with the Cubs.
I understand that's a whole lot of stats thrown together all at once. Let's look at it another way. Here's a list of shortstops kept by Sandlot owners prior to the 2009 MLB Draft: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Orlando Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Yunel Escobar, Stephen Drew, Michael Young (now a 3B), Alexei Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, and prospects Elvis Andrus and Alcides Escobar.
With this list of keeper-tagged shortstops, Ryan Theriot arguably becomes the BAO at shortstop in spite of the presence of oft-injured Rafael Furcal and aging Miguel Tejada in the 2009 MLB Draft. Committing $428k to a top-10 shortstop in his late-20s stands out like no other pick in the first round. Bobby Ayala, for my money (and not much of his own), not only made the best 1st-round pick of any team in the league but also made his previous 2008 transactions pay off in serious dividends.
Understand that this scenario is not the norm when dealing draft picks. Transactions involving draft picks are generally a toss-up and can go in either direction for anyone. Many factors can change one's fortune -- including keeper retention as we just saw in this example -- and work either for or against him.
Caveat emptor when dealing current or future draft picks; or, perhaps, caveat Bobby Ayala. You may get smoked just as Carl Spackler and Buckner did in this one.
Drafting Depth: Catchers
Let’s face it -- with catchers, you either take the big guys too early (Mauer, Soto, Martin, McCann) or you wait out everyone else for all the\ others. Last year, we said goodbye to consistent 2nd-tier catcher Pudge Rodriguez, who looks to be at best in a platoon situation after Marlins President David Samson went on record saying there was "zero" chance they would sign him.
But never fear, the 2nd-tier picked up a ton of new names; here’s how it shaped up:
2008 Stats R HR RBI SB AVG
Bengie Molina 46 16 95 0 .292
Ryan Doumit 71 15 69 2 .318
Kelly Shoppach 67 21 55 0 .261
Chris Iannetta 50 18 65 0 .264
Mike Napoli 39 20 49 7 .273
AJ Pierzynski 66 13 60 1 .281
Pablo Sandoval (145 AB) 24 3 24 0 .345
Victor Martinez (nevermind, he’ll rebound)
Molina and Pierzynski are the old-reliables; you know what you’re getting as long as age doesn't put them on the DL. Molina looks to benefit from the addition of Renteria and possibly a big OF bat (Dunn, Abreu, and Manny have all been rumored), but be wary of out-of-shape 34-year-old power hitters. And of course there is Victor Martinez coming off one of the most bizarre fantasy years anyone has ever had. My advice is to let someone else make him the 5th catcher taken in your draft, then take your catcher six to ten rounds later.
Of Shoppach, Iannetta, and Sandoval (who may qualify at 1B & 3B also, depending on your league format), Iannetta has the best pedigree. After a 1.000 OPS in 307 minor-league AB in 2006, he finally arrived last year, slugging .505 and showing signs of increased plate discipline in the 2nd half, decreasing his K/BB ratio. Shoppach looks like the Jack Cust of catchers (.261, 21HR, 133K in 352 AB).
Look for big years from Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli, both of whom enter a season for the first time with a strangle-hold on their starting spots. Doumit’s durability has always been a question, but he put up impressive numbers in 433 AB last year and is still considered an option in OF for the Pirates. So even if former top prospect Ronnie Paulino resurrects himself and gets a few games behind the plate, Doumit could get 540+ AB. Napoli’s 20HR in 227 AB were incredible, and doubling his 2007 stats isn’t out of reach if he can stay healthy.
There are other catchers waiting in the wings -- Dioner Navarro, Kurt Suzuki, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Snyder to name a few -- guys who will contribute to some stats (usually AVG) and may surprise with breakout years. With so many high-upside, low-risk options, and the likelihood there will always be a Paul Lo Duca or Gerald Laird in the FA pool at any given point in the season, you’re better off taking that five-tool OF or that slugging SS than a catcher too early.
But never fear, the 2nd-tier picked up a ton of new names; here’s how it shaped up:
2008 Stats R HR RBI SB AVG
Bengie Molina 46 16 95 0 .292
Ryan Doumit 71 15 69 2 .318
Kelly Shoppach 67 21 55 0 .261
Chris Iannetta 50 18 65 0 .264
Mike Napoli 39 20 49 7 .273
AJ Pierzynski 66 13 60 1 .281
Pablo Sandoval (145 AB) 24 3 24 0 .345
Victor Martinez (nevermind, he’ll rebound)
Molina and Pierzynski are the old-reliables; you know what you’re getting as long as age doesn't put them on the DL. Molina looks to benefit from the addition of Renteria and possibly a big OF bat (Dunn, Abreu, and Manny have all been rumored), but be wary of out-of-shape 34-year-old power hitters. And of course there is Victor Martinez coming off one of the most bizarre fantasy years anyone has ever had. My advice is to let someone else make him the 5th catcher taken in your draft, then take your catcher six to ten rounds later.
Of Shoppach, Iannetta, and Sandoval (who may qualify at 1B & 3B also, depending on your league format), Iannetta has the best pedigree. After a 1.000 OPS in 307 minor-league AB in 2006, he finally arrived last year, slugging .505 and showing signs of increased plate discipline in the 2nd half, decreasing his K/BB ratio. Shoppach looks like the Jack Cust of catchers (.261, 21HR, 133K in 352 AB).
Look for big years from Ryan Doumit and Mike Napoli, both of whom enter a season for the first time with a strangle-hold on their starting spots. Doumit’s durability has always been a question, but he put up impressive numbers in 433 AB last year and is still considered an option in OF for the Pirates. So even if former top prospect Ronnie Paulino resurrects himself and gets a few games behind the plate, Doumit could get 540+ AB. Napoli’s 20HR in 227 AB were incredible, and doubling his 2007 stats isn’t out of reach if he can stay healthy.
There are other catchers waiting in the wings -- Dioner Navarro, Kurt Suzuki, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Chris Snyder to name a few -- guys who will contribute to some stats (usually AVG) and may surprise with breakout years. With so many high-upside, low-risk options, and the likelihood there will always be a Paul Lo Duca or Gerald Laird in the FA pool at any given point in the season, you’re better off taking that five-tool OF or that slugging SS than a catcher too early.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Draft Sleepers for 2009
Everyone who has played Fantasy Baseball knows the funnest part of every season is the draft. Most also know that you don't win the league by having the best 1st-, 2nd-, or even 3rd-round pick. Most of these players selected are pretty even in value, and unless you completely bomb your selections, everyone will be on pretty equal footing. This brings us to the focus of this post -- draft sleepers! They come in every form: old, young, veteran, or rookie. There are many things people look for when making their list. I like to look at the previous two or three seasons when it comes to a veteran and entire minor league numbers when it concerns a rookie. Splits, BABIP, any other stats are useful in deciding on potential sleepers. Many times, I'll look at a hitter or pitcher's second-half numbers and see if they improved upon their first-half numbers.
Here's an example: Carlos Delgado. He had a pretty bad first-half; pre-All Star Break: 347 AB, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 78K, and a .248 BA. The numbers don't look horrible, but let's look at the post-All Star Stats: 251 AB, 21HR, 63 RBI, 46 K, and a .303 BA. In almost 100 fewer AB, Delgado crushed his first-half stats -- more HR, RBI, and a better BA. Now I'm not necessarily saying Delgado is a sleeper. His second-half numbers have been better in each of the past three years, but this is the type of trend you can investigate when picking sleepers. I have compiled a list of sleepers I will be using in all my upcoming drafts. I've separated it into hitters and pitchers.
Hitting Sleepers
Coco Crisp, CF Royals - I think Crisp will be a good source of steals without dragging down your BA like other SB specialists will; and he can provide you moderate power numbers for a speed specialist.
Cody Ross, LF Marlins - Cody has been a part-time player with Willingham owning left field. He's capable of playing all three OF positions and appears to have the LF job to himself. Don't expect many SB or a great BA, but 85/25/90/12/.260 doesn't seem out of the question.
Cameron Maybin, CF Marlins - Not a sleeper in the classic sense of being relatively unknown, but he's likely to go un-drafted unless owners take a flier on him in the late rounds. And if he gets the starting job, he will be a great source of steals. Draft Maybin knowing he while may not have the job by April, his upside is huge.
Jeff Francoeur, RF Braves - Again, this guy isn't an "unknown", but French likely won't be drafted until very late or not at all. He had a horrid '08 after expectations for a huge season. Over the off-season, Francoeur has tweaked his stance to help his approach at the plate, so we might expect numbers closer to his '07 season than that of '08.
Chris Davis 1b/3b Rangers - It's almost impossible to consider him a sleeper with how much love he's receiving, but there's still a chance you might not have heard of him. Only 22, Davis put up massive numbers in only 295 AB this past year: 17 HR, 55 RBI, and a .285 BA. There's no reason not to expect big things from him in years to come.
Pitching Sleepers
Randy Johnson, SP Giants - Now this guy's a big name, so many may be asking, "Huh? Sleeper?" Randy put together a fine performance last year with the D-Backs; and pitching at AT&T surely won't hurt his value this year. He will have a very good K/9 and won't hurt in other categories. Though he remains a injury risk, so draft accordingly.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP Giants - Surprise, two Giants SP in a row. Sanchez won't be your SP1 -- not even close -- but he's only owned in 30% of ESPN Leagues and he averaged a K per inning in '08. I'd like a lower ERA and WHIP in 2009, but his k/9 alone is enough to take a shot on him.
Manny Parra, SP Brewers - One of the top prospects out of the Brewers' farm system, Parra pitched exceptionally in the first half. He faded as the season wore on, but that's understandable considering it was his first full season in the majors.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP Astros- Injuries plagued what would have been a career year for Wandy. He averaged just under a K per inning, and while he didn't completely overcome his home/road splits, his road numbers weren't nearly as bad as in previous years and definitely not bad enough to scare me away from him.
Jair Jurrjens, SP Braves - While quietly putting up strong numbers, as guys like Edinson Volquez got most of the press, this young Braves pitcher looks to have a good sophomore year. If the Braves offense and bullpen can be trusted, he makes for a good SP3/SP4 in most leagues.
Jered Weaver, SP Angels - While only winning 11 games and having a mediocre-at-best 4.33 ERA, Weaver put up quality K numbers and had a very serviceable 1.28 WHIP. I expect good things for Weaver in '09.
Zach Greinke, SP Royals - Somehow, this guy is only owned in 78% of leagues on ESPN. While that might not sound bad, his numbers say otherwise. Greinke compiled 183 strikeouts while maintaining a 3.47 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He won't get the respect he deserves on draft day, so do yourself a favor and draft him.
Well guys, although neither of those lists is very large, I'm still in the middle of a draft and can't let too many secrets out. Feel free to let me know what guys you have pegged for sleepers. Remember, a sleeper isn't technically an unknown but rather a player whose value is going to be higher then his draft position indicates. So don't stretch or reach for someone you feel is a sleeper -- that's how you get stuck with Carl Pavano.
Here's an example: Carlos Delgado. He had a pretty bad first-half; pre-All Star Break: 347 AB, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 78K, and a .248 BA. The numbers don't look horrible, but let's look at the post-All Star Stats: 251 AB, 21HR, 63 RBI, 46 K, and a .303 BA. In almost 100 fewer AB, Delgado crushed his first-half stats -- more HR, RBI, and a better BA. Now I'm not necessarily saying Delgado is a sleeper. His second-half numbers have been better in each of the past three years, but this is the type of trend you can investigate when picking sleepers. I have compiled a list of sleepers I will be using in all my upcoming drafts. I've separated it into hitters and pitchers.
Hitting Sleepers
Coco Crisp, CF Royals - I think Crisp will be a good source of steals without dragging down your BA like other SB specialists will; and he can provide you moderate power numbers for a speed specialist.
Cody Ross, LF Marlins - Cody has been a part-time player with Willingham owning left field. He's capable of playing all three OF positions and appears to have the LF job to himself. Don't expect many SB or a great BA, but 85/25/90/12/.260 doesn't seem out of the question.
Cameron Maybin, CF Marlins - Not a sleeper in the classic sense of being relatively unknown, but he's likely to go un-drafted unless owners take a flier on him in the late rounds. And if he gets the starting job, he will be a great source of steals. Draft Maybin knowing he while may not have the job by April, his upside is huge.
Jeff Francoeur, RF Braves - Again, this guy isn't an "unknown", but French likely won't be drafted until very late or not at all. He had a horrid '08 after expectations for a huge season. Over the off-season, Francoeur has tweaked his stance to help his approach at the plate, so we might expect numbers closer to his '07 season than that of '08.
Chris Davis 1b/3b Rangers - It's almost impossible to consider him a sleeper with how much love he's receiving, but there's still a chance you might not have heard of him. Only 22, Davis put up massive numbers in only 295 AB this past year: 17 HR, 55 RBI, and a .285 BA. There's no reason not to expect big things from him in years to come.
Pitching Sleepers
Randy Johnson, SP Giants - Now this guy's a big name, so many may be asking, "Huh? Sleeper?" Randy put together a fine performance last year with the D-Backs; and pitching at AT&T surely won't hurt his value this year. He will have a very good K/9 and won't hurt in other categories. Though he remains a injury risk, so draft accordingly.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP Giants - Surprise, two Giants SP in a row. Sanchez won't be your SP1 -- not even close -- but he's only owned in 30% of ESPN Leagues and he averaged a K per inning in '08. I'd like a lower ERA and WHIP in 2009, but his k/9 alone is enough to take a shot on him.
Manny Parra, SP Brewers - One of the top prospects out of the Brewers' farm system, Parra pitched exceptionally in the first half. He faded as the season wore on, but that's understandable considering it was his first full season in the majors.
Wandy Rodriguez, SP Astros- Injuries plagued what would have been a career year for Wandy. He averaged just under a K per inning, and while he didn't completely overcome his home/road splits, his road numbers weren't nearly as bad as in previous years and definitely not bad enough to scare me away from him.
Jair Jurrjens, SP Braves - While quietly putting up strong numbers, as guys like Edinson Volquez got most of the press, this young Braves pitcher looks to have a good sophomore year. If the Braves offense and bullpen can be trusted, he makes for a good SP3/SP4 in most leagues.
Jered Weaver, SP Angels - While only winning 11 games and having a mediocre-at-best 4.33 ERA, Weaver put up quality K numbers and had a very serviceable 1.28 WHIP. I expect good things for Weaver in '09.
Zach Greinke, SP Royals - Somehow, this guy is only owned in 78% of leagues on ESPN. While that might not sound bad, his numbers say otherwise. Greinke compiled 183 strikeouts while maintaining a 3.47 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He won't get the respect he deserves on draft day, so do yourself a favor and draft him.
Well guys, although neither of those lists is very large, I'm still in the middle of a draft and can't let too many secrets out. Feel free to let me know what guys you have pegged for sleepers. Remember, a sleeper isn't technically an unknown but rather a player whose value is going to be higher then his draft position indicates. So don't stretch or reach for someone you feel is a sleeper -- that's how you get stuck with Carl Pavano.
Welcome to The Sandlot's Official Blog
For those of you nerdy enough to have followed The Sandlot over on ESPN.com's Message Boards, you already know what this league is all about. Sixteen of the most competitive, shrewd, cocky, and outspoken owners found on ESPN's FLB site have all gathered to attempt the experiment of one David Mack (damack1234). He proposed a salary keeper league on the Boards and sought out the best owners from the crop of guys he happened to "know" -- and I use that term loosely -- from the site.
Our 2008 season can be deemed an all-around success. Chris Thompson, aka Nellie's Holler, emerged as league champion with outstanding starting pitching (J. Santana, Felix, Burnett, Shields), strong hitting (Abreu, Pujols, Longoria, Pena, V. Guerrero), and a deep bullpen (Balfour/Percival, Rivera/Hanrahan, M. Rivera, Sherrill) to his credit. But who will emerge as 2009's champion? Only time will tell.
And as we march the long and lonely road to Opening Day, The Sandlot says "Hello!" to three new owners: Sleeve of Wizard, The Baseball Junkies, and Austin Puckettiers. So long to The Denver Nuggets, Pervin' The Dish, and Chicago Serbs. We barely knew ye...
The Sandlot is currently in its eighth round of the MLB Draft (http://killinmesmalls.proboards50.com, in case you are interested); as the draft concludes, more owners will contribute to this blog. We also plan on posting an entry with the complete 2009 MLB Draft list, pick by strenuous pick, and a handful of perspectives from some of the league's most nefarious owners (Lee__D, I'm looking at you).
Also be on the lookout for the Best/Worst MLB Draft Picks of 2009, complete with laugh tracks and the occasional stick-poking.
In short, 2009 looks to be an uproarious season with drama, tangents, rants, information, randomness, chaos, and a whole lot of fun. Get ready.
Our 2008 season can be deemed an all-around success. Chris Thompson, aka Nellie's Holler, emerged as league champion with outstanding starting pitching (J. Santana, Felix, Burnett, Shields), strong hitting (Abreu, Pujols, Longoria, Pena, V. Guerrero), and a deep bullpen (Balfour/Percival, Rivera/Hanrahan, M. Rivera, Sherrill) to his credit. But who will emerge as 2009's champion? Only time will tell.
And as we march the long and lonely road to Opening Day, The Sandlot says "Hello!" to three new owners: Sleeve of Wizard, The Baseball Junkies, and Austin Puckettiers. So long to The Denver Nuggets, Pervin' The Dish, and Chicago Serbs. We barely knew ye...
The Sandlot is currently in its eighth round of the MLB Draft (http://killinmesmalls.proboards50.com, in case you are interested); as the draft concludes, more owners will contribute to this blog. We also plan on posting an entry with the complete 2009 MLB Draft list, pick by strenuous pick, and a handful of perspectives from some of the league's most nefarious owners (Lee__D, I'm looking at you).
Also be on the lookout for the Best/Worst MLB Draft Picks of 2009, complete with laugh tracks and the occasional stick-poking.
In short, 2009 looks to be an uproarious season with drama, tangents, rants, information, randomness, chaos, and a whole lot of fun. Get ready.
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